laverabe@lemmy.worldM to Political Discussion and Commentary@lemmy.worldEnglish · 22 days agoHarris is 3% up on Trump in national polling, what do you think the polling will look like in November?message-squaremessage-square10fedilinkarrow-up17arrow-down12file-text
arrow-up15arrow-down1message-squareHarris is 3% up on Trump in national polling, what do you think the polling will look like in November?laverabe@lemmy.worldM to Political Discussion and Commentary@lemmy.worldEnglish · 22 days agomessage-square10fedilinkfile-text
minus-squarekrelvar@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up2·20 days agoPerhaps the 538 simulation projector would be along those lines? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
minus-squarelaverabe@lemmy.worldOPMlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up1·20 days agoah yeah, I had forgot about that. He was dead wrong in 2016 ;) I think he had Clinton at like 80% chance of winning, but I believe whatever errors they made back then were mostly corrected since.
minus-squarekrelvar@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up2·20 days agoSilver isn’t with 538 anymore, I think his model and the 538 model have the same basis though, probably diverging a bit since he left? In any case, the point that an 80% chance of X is no guarantee of X got pounded home, don’t you think? :)
Perhaps the 538 simulation projector would be along those lines?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
ah yeah, I had forgot about that. He was dead wrong in 2016 ;) I think he had Clinton at like 80% chance of winning, but I believe whatever errors they made back then were mostly corrected since.
Silver isn’t with 538 anymore, I think his model and the 538 model have the same basis though, probably diverging a bit since he left?
In any case, the point that an 80% chance of X is no guarantee of X got pounded home, don’t you think? :)