Nate Silver’s essay discusses the limitations of gut instincts in election predictions, emphasizing that while polls in battleground states show a tight race, no one should trust their “gut” predictions. Silver’s “gut” leans toward Trump, but he stresses that polls are complex and often subject to errors like nonresponse bias. Both Trump and Harris could overperform based on various polling dynamics. He also warns of potential polling herding, which could lead to a larger-than-expected victory for either candidate. Ultimately, the outcome remains highly uncertain.
Seems to me the polls are contaminated with politically motivated polling becoming more common.
If you have the right to vote, use it. Nothing is decided until the votes are counted.
And then, depending on the result, things might still not be decided… You guys will have a merry end of year by the look of it.