I have a fascination for moonphase watches and I have an active search saved on chrono24 for Moonphase. Usually, on any given day, maybe 20-30 new watches are added to that site category. My search alerts me. and I sort by Newest.
About 3 days ago, I noticed instead of getting an update for 24 new moonphase, it was 75. I clicked and checked it out - most were extremely high end, Patek Phillipe, Breguet, Audemars in the high 70-350K range.
2 days ago, I get another update. 111 new moonphase in the last 24 hours. I click… Patek Phillips, Breguet, Audemars, JLC, Vacheron, Glashutte, A. Lange, Rolex… prices similar.
1 day ago, I get an update, 52 new moonphase. Same results.
As usual I’m cruising around YT looking for fun videos, and I come across THIS:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxuxbW_9BhM
6th quarter of price drops. What we’re seeing, and I’m sure it’s true in other categories, is a huge wave of sellers getting out of a crashing high end luxury watch market. Good for us scrappers.
Thanks very much for sharing this!
You mean watches aren’t good investments?
Yes. DO NOT buy a new watch right now. Wait a year and get a huge discount
Good.
There are price indexes you can find on Chrono24 and WatchCharts. We are seeing covid excesses be bled out of the watch market and other markets (housing, luxury cars, boats, vacation homes). I don’t think the secondary market has come back down normality, but it’s certainly a good time to suggest a price to a stale listing that might let them sell for what they paid the AD for.
As a fellow
Moon phases for the win.
Cellini is the best looking rolex imo. Beautiful watch you’ve got there.
also a cellini fan. and dress watches in general. sometimes i like them busy, but mostly clean.
The r/watches and r/wallstreetbets crossover we’ve all been waiting for.
Incidentally I just bought a moon phase on Chrono 🙃
Yep, I have similar searches set up on C24 for various things. Same observations. 16570 Explorer IIs, a watch that could be had for around 6k with B&P pre-covid, was selling for upwards of 11k by 2022. Prices have dropped back down to the 7s and there are still watches sitting there unsold for months. Even later models with SEL bracelets and 3186 movements aren’t flying off the shelves at the same rate. I’m intrigued to see where we are come February 2024.
16570 with glidelock would be perfection—do 20mm modern oyster bracelets fit it?
I saw a 126710 BLRO for $15.7k. 2021 full set like new. This was north of 18 not too long back.
That is a good thing, There is no way any steel sport watch should sell for more 5-10k, regardless of pedigree. The finishing on pm watches is where the price can really go up… and that makes sense. Something handmade by a master craftsman is a special thing in our assembly line world. But stainless steel watches that can be perfectly faked in china with common equipment have gotten out of hand with pricing. I hope the market continues to fall
Ray dalio recently commented that financial outlook for 2024 is pessimistic. Blackrock commented months ago that by now inflation has degraded people’s cash reserves. Economy will be doing worse. Seems logical more are being sold to cash out
When the economy tanks luxury items start costing less. You have to ask yourself how many of these were purchased on credit bu flippers hoping to make a buck.
