Have yet to travel to Argentina myself, but I’d like to in 2024 for a couple of months at least.
I’m wondering if those of you who are familiar with the situation could share your thoughts on how the change in leadership may impact DNs.
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Who will take the pesos, though? They’ll be worthless.
Milie won……ugh…not sure
Short term: no effect tbh the political class is for the most parr against the new president so maybe a lot of political infighting.
Longterm: if the country adopts the dollar, it will get expensive to be there for the average DN living on 1.5k a month budget but that’s just me speculating.
For the average DN from the us/eu it will be business as usual in 2024
Dollar just provides stability. It doesn’t change the countrys economics overnight.
Yea not sure if you missed the part where i said “longterm”
Qns considering he won the election, whatever your being told is my the opinion of the majority
Long term whether it’s dollars or not doesn’t make things expensive. It provides stability.
Ecuador has used dollars how long ? Still one of the most affordable countries in LATAM.
stability is a huge factor in weather the economy succeeds or not
Has the winner been called?
yes
Yea I saw it and responded right after. What are the down votes about??
First off, having spent several months in Argentina, my wishes are for whatever’s best for my friends who live there — even if it means nomading in BA becomes more expensive for me.
Not sure if dollarization is the best strategy or if Millei will pull it off, but if Argentina becomes more expensive but also more stable, that would be fine with me. I’ve considered buying property and putting down roots there, but the political and economic instability was always the biggest drawback.
Keep in mind: Milei has to navigate a Congress opposed to his plans. His hands will largely be tied. There are a lot of unknowns still.
I agree. I hope it can become the expensive, thriving first-world country it deserves to be.
The plan is to dollarize over about 12 months. Initially it will be driven by the people. Currently Argentina caps exchange to $200 per day (iirc). This has created a grey market. So all they have to do is remove this cap. People will rush to exchange their pesos for dollars. Eliminating this market will immediately make people better off by eliminating the grey market transaction time and fees. This will kick of dollarization.
The next step is to remove all the artificial exchange rates, Argentina has a bunch based on industry. More savings, more dollarization, better trade. As well as other trade barriers and regulations.
The plan is let the consumer economy drive dollarization until it reaches 2/3s of the money supply at which point the government will kick in and dollarize its accounts.
That’s the gist of it at least.
It may make things more expensive just like the euro did to Europe but it will create a stable growing economy. It’ll take a lot more but when you have runaway inflation for decades, it’s a start.
The biggest problem with this is that they don’t have anywhere near enough dollars on hand to lift the cap.
Argentina caps exchange to $200 per day
per month
RemindMe! 1 year “curious to see the outcome, not debating the prediction/projection”
IMO you won’t see a cap entirely removed. He will want average Argentinians to be able to convert all of their money, but theres a good chance he will burn the elite and turn a chunk of their money to toilet paper. There’s not a compelling reason to let them convert all of their money when you could just burn them reducing the money supply and combating inflation.
I’m glossing over details. How they do it exactly we’ll have to wait and see. Dollarization wont fix everything. It’s main purpose right now is to stabilize inflation and the economy. But reforms to government , trade, etc are just as important.
I’m heading to Argentina in January
What Americans call a “Hail Mary” pass. When things are so bad you just throw the football as far as possible and pray one of your team is under it when it comes down. Good luck to them.
I just released a post outlining this if anyone is interested. link to post
Impossible to tell yet, anything can happen in that country
My guess is Argentina will be the first country to have a virtual currency pegged to the dollar. But I am not sure how all this is gonna pan out
Pegging it to the dollar only works if you have actual dollars, and using a separate currency allows other politicians down the line to unpeg it or print more money and just lie. There won’t be a separate currency because actual dollars accomplish the stated goal better.