In 2003 Liftport forecast they would build the first space elevator by 2018. Since then, nobody has been able to solve the problem of catalysts gradually degrading, and other issues that limit the length of carbon nanotubes to about half a meter. So research has mostly given up on trying to make really long nanotubes tubes and is focused on weaving shorter ones together into a “yarn”. But the yarn has only 1 or 2% of the tensile strength of individual nanotubes - too weak to be a tether material.
So it’s not like there’s a steady stream of progress. The field seems to be waiting for a new revolutionary nanotube making process that avoids the original problems. Recent forecasts I’ve seen don’t expect the tech to get here until near the end of this century. With climate change becoming a more pressing issue (finally) my bet is more like well into the next century. That’s what makes me think better, cheaper rocket propulsion will come along sooner.
I liked the idea that any space elevator might be built elsewhere, such as mars. The lower gravity makes it less impossible, the lower population reduces the impact of catastrophe, and you are more likely to have space based trading and supply once you’re outside earths gravity
In 2003 Liftport forecast they would build the first space elevator by 2018. Since then, nobody has been able to solve the problem of catalysts gradually degrading, and other issues that limit the length of carbon nanotubes to about half a meter. So research has mostly given up on trying to make really long nanotubes tubes and is focused on weaving shorter ones together into a “yarn”. But the yarn has only 1 or 2% of the tensile strength of individual nanotubes - too weak to be a tether material.
So it’s not like there’s a steady stream of progress. The field seems to be waiting for a new revolutionary nanotube making process that avoids the original problems. Recent forecasts I’ve seen don’t expect the tech to get here until near the end of this century. With climate change becoming a more pressing issue (finally) my bet is more like well into the next century. That’s what makes me think better, cheaper rocket propulsion will come along sooner.
I liked the idea that any space elevator might be built elsewhere, such as mars. The lower gravity makes it less impossible, the lower population reduces the impact of catastrophe, and you are more likely to have space based trading and supply once you’re outside earths gravity