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Cake day: January 29th, 2025

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  • Australia is among only 24 countries that will meet next April for a conference co-hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands to work on plans for a complete fossil fuel phase-out. Other participating countries include Austria, Belgium, Cambodia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Denmark, Fiji, Finland, Ireland, Jamaica, Kenya, Luxembourg, Marshall Islands, Mexico, Micronesia, Nepal, Panama, Spain, Slovenia, Vanuatu and Tuvalu.

    It is these countries that are leading the way in the fight for a better climate.

    The two largest economies and historical emitters, the US and China, were as conspicuous in their lack of impact during the COP30 as they were before. U.S. President Donald Trump declined to send representatives as the Washington exits from global climate accords.

    And China has once again proven to focus more on its own interests in trade rather than stepping into a stronger leadership role in fighting climate change while it’s energy consumption continues to rise at a staggering rate. The country accounts for one third of the of the world’s total energy consumption, compared to a fifth 15 years ago, and is responsible for 90% of the increase in these emissions since 2015. China is portraying itself as a leader in climate policy, but when it’s leader Xi Jinping announced a decrease of over 7% by 2035 a few weeks ago, he carefully avoided specifying a baseline.

    Researchers think that China’s NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution) falls short to limit global warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and striving to stay below 1.5 °C. As Lauri Myllyvirta, an analyst who has tracked China’s emissions trends for more than a decade, said in Nature, “Anything less than 20% is definitely not aligned with 2 degrees. Similarly, anything less than 30% is definitely not aligned with 1.5 degrees."

    Myllyvirta also says that China’s announced emissions cuts — as 7–10% of an undefined amount, rather than specifying a year as the basis for calculation – leaves the door open for short-term emissions increases.

    The different pathways for China to achieve carbon neutrality between 2030 and 2060 could result in different amounts of cumulative emissions, says Myllyvirta. “What matters for the climate is the total amount of GHGs emitted into the atmosphere over time,” he says, adding that this is why cutting emissions fast early on is important.

    So we should not criticize Australia here, but rather China, the U.S., Russia, and Russia as it is them that opposed to phase out fossil fuels.



  • @Jason Kraus

    has flat lined their CO2 emissions for the last 18 months

    This is misleading and incomplete information that makes it outright false.

    China is set to miss its target to cut carbon intensity – the CO2 emissions per unit of GDP – from 2020 to 2025. The country would need steeper reductions to hit the it’s 2030 goal.

    Emissions from the production of cement and other building materials indeed fell by 7% in the third quarter of 2025, while emissions from the metals industry fell 1%. This is due, however, not to environmental policy in Beijing, but rather to the ongoing real-estate crisis, as the construction sector uses most of the country’s steel and cement output.

    Power-sector emissions were also flat year-on-year in Q3/2025, with emissions from transport fell by 5%, but oil consumption in other sectors grew by 10%, driven by chemical industry expansion. This resulted in a 2% rise in oil consumption overall. Gas demand and emissions grew by 3% overall in Q3, with consumption in the power sector up by 9% and by 2% in other sectors.


  • @Tiresia@slrpnk.net

    I wrote that recently in another thread, and it’s true also here.

    Your view is oversimplified to a degree that it is outright false.

    However, it is not necessary to engage in such a discussion as it is not relevant here when we look at the data and how it is calculated.

    According to the scientists at the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) cited in the linked report, China is behind by any metric, including by what the CAT scientists call a country’s “fair share.” This reflects the “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances”, as stated in the Paris agreement (Article 4.3),

    Here you can find China’s CAT rating. As you can see, China’s ‘policy and actions against fair share’ is rated as insufficient, with its overall rating highly insufficient.

    As you can also see in the CAT rating, no country is on track, but China is among those countries most behind by any comparative standards.