That is what I am saying though. Scaling up data Centers for AI does not matter. Not saying AI does not matter, that scaling up LLMs does not matter. Seems to fit but we can disagree

Space debris target.

I have not driven in Thailand, but it is absolutely the norm in Vietnam.

It really is absurd as the horn is the first thing people reach for versus the brakes. In fact I cringe daily as massive busses or truck fly through busy intersections and only hit the horn and never the brakes. Then there are all the people on scooters pulling out onto busy roads and not shoulder checking at all. Just a horn maybe and pull into traffic hoping others accommodate. They don’t always and this there are many traffic fatalities and a lot of injuries many avoidable. Oh…and the many people scooting in the wrong side of the road which is extremely common still here in Nha Trang despite the laws saying it is illegal now.

I see zero evidence that logic has a path to being solved or even just improved from the train wreck logic LLMs currently have as scaling up did not have the impact the investments anticipated. Yes, most other AI metrics really did improve with scale, but not logic as is obvious to anyone using AI for heavy mental lifting like codin.  I call this the Cognitive Gap and despite the effort, it is clear no AI company has any advantage here.  Certainly not OpenAI based on their behaviour alone nor anyone else as the first to crack it, will have a massive advantage and will likely see the birth of AGI and the elusive self improvement takeoff.  Clearly no one is there today.

John Carmack said a few years ago on the Lex Fridman YouTube video titled “The code for AGI will be simple”

“It seems to me this is the highest leverage moment for a single individual potentially in the history of the world … I am not a madman in saying that the code for artificial General intelligence is going to be tens of thousands of lines of code, not millions of lines of code. This is code that conceivably one individual could write, unlike writing a new web browser or operating system.”

This deeply resonated with me as it is likely true.  In fact I am sure many in IT can relate as anyone working on large IT systems likely have a story that goes like this.  Performance of a new Enterprise system that was developed in-house will require millions of dollars of compute to meet the SLA performance metrics which is well above the original budget.  As hardware was being begrudgingly acquired a smart developer (usually 1 person) realized there was a better way to code a key component and it gained 100x in performance making the need for all that extra millions in hardware null and void.  This did not happen to me once, but many times over my 30 year IT career. You can brute force, but you can also find elegant solutions.

In my firm opinion there is a strong possibility that John is right and if this comes to pass, it will suddenly mean that AGI is much more efficient than the data centres we have built for it, thus making those investments pointless.

Of course it may not roll that way and instead we realize it is big code and big data Centers needed and one company or country ends up Dominating all, but my money is on an individual discovering and then making it open source and decentralized and you should hope for this too as the alternative is ugly for all.  Centralization = Corruption and Exploitation.

Video referenced:  https://youtu.be/xLi83prR5fg

Am I the only one who is already utterly bored of GTA in America? I know this is where the series is based, but I am so over my interest of that country and would love to see a GTA in a new country. GTA Bangkok would be amazing for instance.

In the meantime, Rockstar better get it together and treat their employees with respect and stop being greedy assholes. Either way, I am not buying GTA 6.

I am living in Vietnam right now, and this is actually a common item to be strapped to the back of a motor bike out for delivery. The tanks here are 1/3 taller with the valve sticking out as the tank is sideways on the bike back seat behind the driver. Always makes me cringe when I see it especially with how unsafe drivers are here.

Agreed

Wow…that is roughly $2000 per Canadian.

I read a stat that if the true costs of AI was past onto users it would 42 times more expensive or something along those lines. Who know the right number, but it is obviously out of alignment with the value AI is able to bring today. Imagine instead of $20 / month it was $840 / month to just break even.

Continuing to invest and scale up AI Data Centres without a clear path on how to improve LLMs logic is a fool’s errand.

Parmesan has entered the chat.

Bitcoin as it is so disruptive and a blueprint for how to truly run a decentralized service that cannot be controlled.

I have been using Caputo Gluten Free Pizza dough and wow it is very comparable to a regular Napoli pizza. I have zero affiliation, but as a pizza fan with gluten sensitivity I have tried many many recipes and gluten free flour brands and even my own flour blends, and somehow Caputo is the only one that is hard to tell from a real wheat flour pizza. No idea why either as the ingredients are very similar to other gluten free flours. Cannot recommend more as even your wheat based pizza fans will likely not be able to tell a difference.

It is a gamble for sure against innovation and a blind one too. I say this as it is clear right now that scaling up LLMs while very effective at substantially improving many AI metrics, it really did not have much impact on logic. I have been calling this the Cognitive Gap and it is really holding back AI.

Clearly the big LLM companies do not have a solution to this gap despite efforts like the reasoning models and that likely means we need an entirely different tech to front end LLMs or replace them.

This begs the question…who has a line of sight on how to scale up logic and the answer as near as I can tell is no one right now. Maybe there is something in a lab somewhere, or even with just a small team or individual, but it is not presently visible. It could come out any day now and make all those Data Center investments worthwhile or may take years before we see the Cognitive Gap close which will really make those same Data Centers completely out of alignment with the value they bring.

Shorting the AI industry is a roll of the dice, but less so than the blind investments still happening in Data Centres despite no clear path to improve logic and close the Cognitive Gap. In fact shorting seems like the safer bet.

Going to be interesting as if the Cognative Gap is not closed for years to come, those Data Center investments are never going to pay off as the value will just not be there. The entire USA economy is tied to AI it seems right now so the roll of the dice is perhaps the biggest risk / reward in history.

There is NO evidence? I found these 10 papers that seems to indicate there is some emerging evidence.

1.	“The micro(nano)plastics perspective” (Molecular Cancer, 2025) — overview of micro(nano)plastics and potential links to cancer  

Link: https://molecular-cancer.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12943-025-02230-z 2. “Insights into the potential carcinogenicity of micro (nano)plastics” (Domenech et al., 2023) — review of evidence of MNPLs’ carcinogenic potential  Link: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36739075/ 3. “Microplastics: a cancer-causing agent for humans and …” (Jindal et al.) — argues MPs as risk for cancer and reviews mechanisms  Link: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11925826/ 4. “Worker studies suggest unique liver carcinogenicity potential of polyvinyl chloride microplastics” (Zarus et al.) — occupational exposure / PVC microplastic exposure and liver cancer risk  Link: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/147717 5. “Exploring the link between microplastics and cancer” (Joseph et al., 2025) — discussion of MPs’ persistence, accumulation, and possible roles in carcinogenesis  Link: https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2025/em/d5em00232j 6. “Microplastics and Cancer: Your Questions Answered” (Dana-Farber blog overview) — less technical, useful summary of human/animal evidence to date  Link: https://blog.dana-farber.org/insight/2025/03/microplastics-and-cancer-what-you-need-to-know/ 7. “Microplastics in the Human Body: Exposure, Detection, and …” (Dzierżyński et al., 2024) — includes risk estimates for cancer from MP-bound contaminants  Link: https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6694/16/21/3703 8. “Microplastics: an often-overlooked issue in the transition …” (Cheng et al., 2024) — mentions MP exposure promoting proliferation of skin cancer cells, etc.  Link: https://translational-medicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12967-024-05731-5 9. “Identification and analysis of microplastics in peritumoral and tumor tissues of colorectal cancer” (Pan et al., 2025) — directly detects MPs in human colorectal tumor and peritumoral tissues  Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-98268-6 10. “Investigating the Carcinogenic Potential of Plastic Additives” (Vincoff et al., 2024) — focuses on additives (in plastics) which may mediate carcinogenic risk in plastics including microplastics  Link: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.3c06840

Is that enough? We need to get a lot more serious in every county including mine, Canada, as they are only increasing fossil fuel extraction year over year and not reducing. Insane.

So it is bro due to the microplastics and other pollutants, additives and chemicals in the food chain and environment too?

This is so confusing as a few posts above this one it was saying how China is leading green. Ughhh.

Good for China. I hope the progress is measurable at the end of the day as we really need to get off the fossil fuels.