A frog who wants the objective truth about anything and everything.

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Cake day: July 4th, 2023

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  • You are describing a Free 2 play game monetized with micro transactions.

    At least in Europe, the Stop Killing Games group would argue that those micro transactions would be considered buying a perpetual license to that good (the skin/character), and thus it would be a breach of contract for the publisher to arbitrarily remove your ability to access that content. They would need an end of life plan so the buyer could reasonably still access the goods they purchased after the publisher drops support.

    Only a truly free game where no money changes hands would be exempt from the legislation, or perhaps a game that was subscription based up-front, as then it makes clear you are only purchasing access to the content for a finite amount of time.





  • I don’t think that’s a good scene to judge it on, personally.

    As someone who hates modern star wars, and only mildy enjoys the original trilogy, I thought Andor was extremely compelling, and some of the finest sci-fi, or fiction in general, that I’d ever seen (and I am very picky).

    It is, in essence, a brilliantly written rendition of an oppressed people building an effective and realistically depicted underground resistance movement against a fascist regime which happens to be attached to the star wars IP (which it uses well, aesthetically). So more of a tightly written political/espionage thriller than it is traditional space opera.

    The quality of the writing is far, far beyond any other star wars movie or show, going very much into the territory of Where Eagles Dare, The Godfather, or or 3 Days of The Condor. The dialog is excellent, the plots excellent, the pacing excellent, I have very few complaints.

    I think the quality of it comes from the writer Tony Gilroy putting a tremendous amount of effort into researching historical revolutions and drawing from those, which makes it feel very grounded.

    If you dislike modern star wars, I really implore you to give Andor a chance, it makes none of the mistakes of modern Disney star wars, in fact it could not be more different.





  • Top military brass are still vulnerable to making blunders. Take the Bay of Pigs as an example, which fumbled so hard it eventually led JFK to say “The first advice I’m going to give my successor is to watch the generals and to avoid feeling that because they were military men their opinions on military matters were worth a damn.”

    And that’s with ‘normal’ generals. Now imagine replacing them with compliant generals that will take orders regardless of how bad the idea is tactically or politically.

    The same thing happened with Hitler, who ordered his compliant generals into some insane military blunders. The duo of dictatorships and Yes Men massively increase the chances of incompetence compared to systems where those lower on the totem pole can safely push back against dumb ideas.

    The regime could’ve manufactured some more controllable distractions to Epstein without the dramatic downsides the Iran war has brought, such as fake assassination attempts or false flag operations within the US (like a Reichstag fire situation).

    The Iran situation would be like if Hitler tried to invade Poland, but instead of swiftly conquering it, continually started and stopped peace negotiations while Germany’s cost of living skyrocketed.




  • AFAIK, the concept first appeared in the dystopian sci-fi novel The Shockwave Rider written by John Brunner back in the 70’s. It was called a Delphi Pool in that. Great book, btw. Though unfortunately another example of tech-bros old dystopian novels as a model to build a business.

    The description of it from the book:

    It works, approximately, like this.

    First you corner a large - if possible, a very large - number of people who, while they’ve never formally studied the subject you’re going to ask them about and hence are unlikely to recall the correct answer, are nonetheless plugged into the culture to which the question relates.

    Then you ask them, as it might be, to estimate how many people died in the great influenza epidemic which followed World War I…

    Curiously, when you consolidate their replies they tend to cluster around the actual figure as recorded in almanacs, yearbooks and statical returns.

    It’s rather as though this paradox has proved true: that while nobody knows what’s going on around here, everybody knows what’s going on around here.

    Well, if it works for the past, why can’t it work for the future? Three hundred million people with access to the integrated North American data-net is a nice big number of potential consultees.

    And here’s how the concept was used in the real world (before polymarket), according to this source:

    Perhaps the most striking attempt to make use of this kind of idea was the Policy Analysis Market (PAM), a proposed futures exchange developed by our friends at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). PAM was intended to be a kind of “futures market” for the Middle East; investors could trade futures based on political outcomes in the region.

    The idea is that the monetary value of a particular “future” (a stated outcome in Middle East politics) would tend to increase as the outcome became more likely. That is, the value of a futures issue would tend to reflect the relative likelihood of that future actually occurring.

    Unfortunately, it turned out that PAM would allow trading in such events as coup d’etats and assassinations; the resulting uproar caused the cancellation of PAM.

    The Delphi method was used in the late 1940’s at the RAND Corporation. In their implementation, a panel of experts was regularly polled by a facilitator to predict future outcomes of events related to the Cold War. Brunner probably derives his Delphi pool idea from this work.

    The name “Delphi pool” is derived from the pythia, or priestesses, of Delphi in ancient Greece. The pythia would take questions and make predictions (which modern-day geologists attribute to hydrocarbon gasses like ethylene, which bubbled up from the faults in the region).