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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • The mainland Chinese SMIC is doing everything they can without access to ASML’s EUV machines, and have gotten further than anyone else has on DUV.

    You can’t say that, though, because it implies Chinese engineers and information technology scientists are trailblazers rather than plagarists and IP thieves.

    Intel did introduce both technologies in its 20A process (supposedly 2nm class), but then canceled it due to low yield. So they’re basically betting the company on their 18A process, and hoping they can get that to market before TSMC and Samsung hit their stride on 2nm.

    And I’ve got a few shares in my retirement account riding on that success. But its more a hedge against my own cynicism than a sincere expectation. Intel, like Boeing, seems far more interested in rewarding investors in the short term than maintaining a foothold in the market long term.







  • Debt, both on-the-books and anticipated.

    Intel’s investments in the Titanium chipset have effectively dead-ended. They can’t get below 7nm efficiently. Meanwhile, you’ve got companies in Taiwan, Korea, China, and Japan breaking into the 3nm and 2nm scales. To catch up, they’re looking at hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars in technical debt.

    Yes, they can keep churning out existing processors at huge profits in the moment. But the face value of these processors plummets with every new step in Moore’s Law. This amounts to asset depreciation, which means Intel’s value is heavily overstated on the basis of asset cost alone.

    I won’t argue that NVIDIA is overvalued. But I think the degree to which they are overvalued is often misattributed to speculation and avoids the real specter haunting the company… competition. NVIDIA’s market dominance and the escalating demand for their technology means the sky really should be the limit for their growth. Demand for AI processing is at the forefront of these expectations. But a rival manufacturer capable of cutting into demand for their units would dramatically undermine their profitability.

    Its the same with firms like Microsoft and Facebook and Boeing. So much of their dominance is predicated on the theory that people will never leave these walled gardens and their margins being enormous purely because they controlled a critical commodity/patch of technical real estate.

    There was - incidentally - another enormous company that seemed to have the market cornered in its industry and got complacent with its R&D and long-term investment strategies… Intel.











  • I remember when conservatives were hooting and hollering about Climate Science Being Wrong, because the predicted “Worst hurricane season on record” wasn’t producing a record number of powerful storms.

    Well… now what? I guess we can fall back to Gaetz and DeSantis blaming Biden for a bad cleanup job. Or go the MTG approach and start talking about HARP and the Jewish Space Lasers.