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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • The headline is misleading.

    Out of 80,000 simulations, Harris won in 50.015 percent of cases, while Trump won in 49.65 percent of cases, per Silver’s model. Some 270 simulations resulted in a 269-269 Electoral College tie.

    So a better headline would be “Simulations show Harris and Trump are equally likely to win the election.” The difference between them is insignificant.

    And when you factor in all the underhand cheating tactics the Republicans have up their sleeve, the Democrats’ tendency to cave, and the Supreme Court’s bias, Trump looks a lot more likely to win than Harris.



  • They’re not thinking that far ahead. They’re thinking “how can I make the lines go up this quarter?”

    No doubt many of them understand that you need people with enough money to buy products or the economy stagnates. But they don’t see it as their problem right now. Their problem right now is to make the line go up by any means they can. It’s similar to how the owners must understand that climate change will fuck everyone if left unchecked, but they don’t see it as their own problem right now, so none of them take any steps to avoid disaster. Capitalism doesn’t contain mechanisms for coordinating actions towards the greater good. Instead it creates many “tragedy of the commons” type situations.