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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: October 23rd, 2024

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  • The AI hype/scarcity frenzy (bubble) was based on Meta and xAI hoarding GPUs for themselves instead of reselling compute, making it abundant instead of scarce. All of the other datacenters were hoping to have them as customers instead of competitors.

    2 lies in article:

    1. byline “proves compute is scarce” is opposite. This is not a real datacenter rental deal. It is a “can quit anytime” show deal. Token consumption is down 20% since march peak.

    2. “Compute costs are rising exponentially”. Blatant lie, in terms of compute pricing $/gpu hour. Rates are near their accounting floor (though not at rock bottom) for H series, and the faster newer cards are just 2x the $/hour instead of the 8x saturated performance difference.




  • hot-air balloons before plastics were often made of silk (and rubber), since most other materials are either too heavy (at least for practical purposes) or too thermally sensitive, and that’s an expensive experiment to be undertaking if you haven’t the first clue how it works.

    I have no idea how old “Chinese lanterns” (small hot air balloon carrying a candle) are, but I assume very old. Concept behind hot air balloon understood. and the most basic imagination would understand the scaling potential. That they also dominated silk supply would require a different explanation for why human basket sized balloons took so long to develop.








  • The fundamental lie behind the AI fraud is that compute is scarce relative to demand. OpenAI, Grok, Meta did overinvest in hoarding GPUs far ahead of their usage. Last 2 are now competing on hourly GPU market, and AI tokens/revenue has fallen 20% since spring peak, which is a bubble pop compared to 10x/year perpetual growth expectations behind the hoarding. While hourly gpu rental market is stable rather than declining, it is stable at very low prices, mostly for accounting reasons of not actually losing money intentionally. Deployed GPUs are abundant proven by accounting floor based pricing. A b300 can deliver 8x the tokens of an h200 but only rents for 2x more.





  • , Carney’s MOU with Alberta calls for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), purportedly to ameliorate environmental damage. But this is still a very costly, unproven technology. In Saskatchewan it has only achieved 60 per cent efficiency

    Ccs is a scam. Cheaper energy than coal can be achieved 10 months of the year, in canada, with coal plant as backup. Much lower emissions than 60% capture, and bigger negative of ccs is that it costs 10$ per watt. Ballpark of nuclear plants. Solar + batteries is $1 per watt.