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Cake day: October 23rd, 2024

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  • This needs a huge amount of energy surplus to provide enough in the summer

    Yes, but you need huge summer surplus solar to provide baseload in winter too. Ammonia in great lakes/mid west region market price is very profitable from solar production in the area.

    using ammonia for heat/energy is in direct contrast to using it using it for the market isn’t it?

    It’s more about making unlimited ammonia and still having a use for it for someone in the world in some season.

    My guess would be anything green H2 will be too high demand and expensive to use as a fuel

    Solar based baseload pricing can work at 2c/kwh daytime summer, and 15-20c/kwh daytime winter. Where legacy plants are kept around for 2 months of the year. But Ammonia is competitive to make/store for the winter and deliver power at around that cost, especially through home/V2H fuel cells, but also at higher backup power pricing. You need ammonia winter reserve for spring sales anyway.


  • The situation described in the report saw NVIDIA on the hook for an “avalanche” of GPUs from TSMC, for which it would have no immediate buyers. Part of the issue highlighted by Kress was also that these small-scale cloud providers NVIDIA was investing in could not afford to buy NVIDIA GPUs, meaning they, too, could be a financial dead end.

    This is big. Nvidia also didn’t show up in last few weeks for OpenAI’s financing desperation. There were bigger 5090 shortages this summer, as rumour that datacenters were being built around them, after rtxpro shortages.

    Nvidia circular financing started off the bubble. But it needs new bagholders, and its sales/extortion power plummets as its investments fail. OpenAI failure brings down the industry financial backers, though it makes GPUs/RAM cheap again.




  • You people get to learn about US empire abuses by being shocked, SHOCKED!, that corruption is going on, and everything is theater. Getting rid of Lutnik is a great first step, but this is pure Trump. The bullying of everyone other than Russia and China isn’t so much Trump being their secret agent, but buying permission for other bullying.

    Nvidia, Lutnik, Trump knew all along that a lot of Nvidia chips get used in datacenters with Chinese access, and pure corruption of everything you hold holy is indeed the conspiracy. Some of these are legal in US. This can/should be used to bring down Trump. ASML/Netherlands should declare all sanctions are BS. But core dementia that all US future wars are normal, is the logic behind attacking Trump gang on this.



  • not the best article, but this shit is awesome! 600mwh is a demo project in China.

    This matches battery deployment costs in china if the compressor is half power. It is cheaper with more storage. Batteries don’t scale much lower in cost with more of them. So, if you need want an extra 600mwh+ of storage that can charge slower than batteries (but at the same time) then this is perfect.

    Solar in southern Canada needs H2 electrolysis in summer to provide baseload in winter. Lots of storage needed to run baseload+electrolysis 24/7 in summer, and winter resilience. This tech is only 50% efficient, but current market for pure H2 is minimal, and Ammonia production is both its main use, and a massively larger market. Also, ammonia is massively larger volumetric energy density, and easy to store. A giant solar farm in Canada can pair with electric haber bosch plant to produce ammonia from green H2, and LAES can provide pure N2. (Pure O2 is also separated by liquifaction). Haber Bosch plant can also provide even higher waste heat than its 200C pressured water extraction, boosting LAES efficiency.

    This is also an energy storage abundance path with different skillset than batteries…






  • $10b revenue for quarter ($40b annualized), with claim of $50b annualized for september (not october claimed in OP)

    It is also having massive fundraising problems, getting $11b-$15b out of targetted $30b, covering about 1 quarter of losses ($10.5b this quarter up despite about 50% revenue growth over last quarter). It’s forced compute spending increasing a lot next quarter, and then it pays Oracle $15b/quarter extra for compute in 2027. It’s optimistic gross margins on inference at the end of the year were 50% even as they cut prices.

    Industry growth is slowing overall. OpenAI would need to average 20.3% revenue growth/quarter to break even at end of 2029. That is higher than their projected 2029 revenue, which with $250b/year in forced compute purchases then, would still leave them burning $70b/year.

    There’s no obvious escape for OpenAI.


  • Tighter US restrictions on chip exports to China

    This can happen just because everyone (NVIDIA, Lutnik, Trump) pretends to be shocked that so much sales to Singapre/SEA region, while knives go out for 2028 election for them. Still, just as China told US to fuck Bessent’s mother over Iran economic sanctions, China will tell US to eat different shit if they want to get uppitty over this.

    AI chip supply and development disruption in the US

    This is unlikely. Any reduction in flows to China/SEA is more supply available for rest of world.

    China overtaking the US in the AI race

    This happens indepently. Nvidia chip advances since H200 are minor at signficantly higher deployment costs. Chinese hardware advances at very high pace. Software at cost points has passed US releases in last 2 months. Though recent US releases have passed those. Open, customizable releases on generic hardware are far ahead, and are solid advantages, compared to sharing data with companies financed well enough to compete in other software/research businesses, or to help skynet spy on you.



  • Jensen instrumental in price extortion policy of industry, and fraud as to both promoting social overspending, and that the tech leads to broader shared prosperity. Since early 2025, every quarter, datacenter sales of Nvidia chips have been well over announced western client datacenter capacity (sovereign and replacement sales would explain part of this, as would hoarding), and flow to China was likely happening. Plenty of legal SEA datacenters with 90% of traffic routed to China too.

    None of this was harm to Nvidia. It’s harm to rest of us through extortionist pricing. Trump corruption is a factor here, but the war on Iran is too. War on Iran needs China’s permission.