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Cake day: October 23rd, 2024

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  • Wanting to sell to China just means that demand isn’t exceeding supply, or maybe even that they have access to more supply that they’d use if they could sell to China, which is a massive market. Or even if they don’t have any excess supply, higher demand means they can set higher prices and still expect to sell all inventory.

    Nvidia has to sell to a Chinese buyer for 25% more than a US buyer would pay to have equivalent profit. It’s certainly possible that China is willing to pay more than that difference, but US private sector is supposed to be in desperation mode for skynet, in addition to having direct white house access of lobbying against China for mere trinkets in tribute. MSFT and others have the power to tell whitehouse/other republicans that they want to buy the H200s instead, and amplify warmongering BS as the reason. They just don’t want to buy them.

    Like the US car companies wanting to sell cars in China doesn’t imply that they are unable to sell cars in the US, it just means they want to sell cars to China and the US.

    US car companies are not supply constrained, including some of them with factories in China, and aren’t prohibited from selling all of their cars there if they were competitive. Nvidia has not been making H200s recently. It has astronomical record inventory levels (likely H200s based on lobbying win). Thier H20 cards that they sold to China the last 2 years, are the best value inference cards on ebay from China, but Americans were not allowed to buy them directly. Since about half of Nvidia GPUs are assembled in China, they have 0 problem with black market access to them, and massive secret Singapore customers of Nvidia are likely them directly profiting from Chinese black market with payment to Nvidia instead of pilferage of GPUs. I get that B200s B300s are better value/FLOP than H200s, but H200s could be priced to Americans/colonies on the same/similar $/flop, and if US/MSFT was really supply constrained, they’d buy or lobby government to force Nvidia to sell them at good $/flop. The Nvidia corruption is also likely to create new H200 production making newer GPUs “scarcer”


  • Microsoft’s finance chief, Amy Hood, argued that the cloud result could have been higher if it had allocated more data center infrastructure to customers rather than prioritizing its in-house needs.

    This is 98% chance a lie. Refusing azure clients wasn’t happening. They are saying the dedicated GPUs to copilot 365/windows/bing, but they would just slow tokens/second delivery or raise prices if they were constrained. Open AI/copilot service is flattening out is the far more likely explanation, and China/Anthropic/Google gaining share is apparent with frontend and LLM innovation.

    That said, windows 11 copilot is going at about 7tps on simple queries about its QOS, and slow service of paid models could impact azure. In Nov 25, they did drop big customer volume discounts. There were big price increases earlier in the year, so growth was in part pricing growth, and likely a drop in usage volume from previous quarter, or at least very stable. The AI frenzy, mostly openAI/msft/oracle/coreweave block of absurdly impossible capacity growth depends on keeping up with supposedly massive (token) demand growth. There are still a lot of free alternatives in the space, and app download figures usually accompany free promotional usage of latest breakthrough model (sora2 was free use on release. kilo code this week has free Kimi K2.5. Other coding tools have fully free or generous free tiers)

    Overall, this, and highly promotional industry, means its very hard for datacenter/LLMs to meet the hype. Deepseek 4 is hyped as a big leap forward, to be released in a couple of weeks. Everything AI boom is likely a lie, and Nvidia bribing Trump to sell H200s to China, at 25% export tariff, is proof of incapacity or unwillingness of US industry to deploy them.






  • this week‑long autonomous browser experiment consumed in the order of 10-20 trillion tokens

    at $60/m, that is $600M to $1.2B in full price cost, but 1/4 this is current standard pricing. Still, even if a buggy piece of shit, a 1-3m line code project in a week is impressive. OTOH, netscape 1.0 cost $4M to develop, with the advantage of working (though other advantage that it was your web page’s fault for not working).

    They set a very challenging experiment. There is a reason for chromium being a popular base for a browser. The more interesting experiment result is if it is ever usable. Are the bugs solvable by AI.




  • Naziism is not defined by reaching 1M genocided milestone

    It is no business of Russia’s whether Ukraine joins NATO or not.

    The dementia or moral failure of Ukrainian nazi supporters is that it is very important to them to diminish Russia through nazi rulership, and not important at all that Ukrainian people/society survives/prospers. Suggesting that no one outside of US is ever allowed an opinion on warmongering is not actual praise of democracy. It is demonic stubbornness that ends in getting nuked or collapse/defeat, because not only is NATO pure demonic evil, making any democratic process supporting it one of pure demonic evil (fraud likely), but NATO turns out to be weaker than Russia. Russophobia propaganda is targeted at our uninformed, and does not convince Russians that world loves them, and that destabilization of Russia will be good for Russians. Inflation, militarism and draft threats actually weakens the democracy and values charade in our NATO captured colonies, and substantially increases our US subjugation, because our rulership’s political capital is committed to the absolute evil of Russophobia propaganda. Trump’s explicit, vs CIA subterfuged tacit, increase in subjugation is easier when our morons just say that threats against us are just alliance with Putin, and our response should be increased Russophobia. The moron has zero capacity to re-evaluate the critical question of “pick just one enemy”



  • 100%. I did get a 32gb mini pc this summer. win 11 is not as stable as win 10 on ddr3, mostly sleep/monitor issues. and 780m on ddr5 is about the same for gaming as 1660s on ddr3. Don’t chase gaming frame rates until prices get more reasonable. If you somehow don’t have a PC more recent than ddr3, then it’s not time to get into gaming, but upgrading cpu/gpu and an extra 16gb ram is likely the better value compared to new system.




  • show that Zelenskyy was having all ethnic Russians in Ukraine rounded up and murdered between his election in 2019 and the increase of the Russian invasion in February 2022

    Within his power, he was trying. Even as his election campaign was to stop the nazi terrorism and implement Minsk accords, he did no such thing, and in fact as Russia got angrier and massed troops along the border in 2022, he directly had UKR military increase shelling and murder operations in Donbas. Forcing Russian humanitarian action.

    Russia’s demands are the subjugation of Ukraine to Russia

    Categorically false. Since beginning, no NATO (or US missile bases), and no nazis. That is not subjugation. West needing nazis to subjugate Ukrainian people to die for nazi bribes to the last Ukrainian is far more damaging to people than exterminating their nazi rulership.

    Ukraine is fighting for the right to keep their land and make their own democratic political decisions without being subjugated by Russia.

    Also categorically absurd. Suicidal Russophobia nazi scum have reduced GDP by over 75%, mass emigration, and destruction of country purely for western bribery in failed attempt to diminish Russia. The most evil and stupid war in history, IMO. Yes, including Hitler/Napoleon, who could have made some reasonable calculation of enhancing Germany, even if it was disastrous. Georgia and Ukraine CIA coups, with full colonial support, are simply pure demonic evil, but also relevant, backfiring to weaken the empire.


  • This is very positive, as threat is a hypothetical based nothing, that is engagement. Like Greenland crazyness, it ends in doing exactly what NATO wanted to be done, with at best delay tactics on doing nothing, or NATO having the option to blow up US missile defense systems in Greenland if used against them.

    The tweet is essentially trade engagement. This would be the perfect time to cancel F35 program and demand refunds for existing jets, until better terms are given to Canada. Should express anger that Canada’s submission to viewing Russia as an adversary means that NORAD only serves to defend the US, and while we love our American friends, we should not be paying for their defense. America only lives, glow free, because of Canada.

    If it is time to threaten trade wars, Canada will impose 200% tariffs on any excess US vs Canada content for manufacturers with presence in both countries. Boeing, Caterpillar, Deere are inferior to international alternatives. Fines/DST placed on US companies (Apple) that subsidize US customer tariffs by marking up prices in Canada will no longer be tolerated. Extreme fines on Canadian subsidiaries can lead to their nationalization, and developing a Canadian branded auto industry from the factories.

    US attitude of diminishing allies, especially Canada, is unacceptable, and has to be forcefully explained as unacceptable. 1000 years of peace comes from US collapse, and our willingness to support its debt, or prevent a single collapsing nuclear detonation in the US, has to be conditional on the US behaving constructively for humanity.


  • Is he rounding up all the Jews in death camps? Is he rounding up ethnic Russians in death camps?

    You’re overly fixated on anti-Jew identity/action as definition of Nazi. Hitler disliked Jews for 2 reasons. Perceived Zionist treason in WW1 to get UK/US involved in war, and 2 Soviet/Communism thought leadership was Jewish. In 1933 election, Communist party gained official opposition, and NDSAP economic policies were identical to Reagan’s “trickle down” voodoo economics, but labelled socialist only because communism was “so hot at the time”.

    Ideology ruling Ukraine, thanks to US/CIA, would murder all Russians if they could.

    Why are you defending Russia’s attempted imperial conquest of Ukraine?

    Russia is the only side that has offered any peace plans. Completely reasonable red lines, the US insisted wouldn’t matter. There is zero basis to call Ukraine war “Russian imperialism”. Red Army marching to Berlin doesn’t mean they started that conflict either.

    To OP, when you oppose denazification of Ukraine, you support all US empire rule and lies. “Middle powers” can’t afford to hate all of the major powers simultaneously.