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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: October 23rd, 2024

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  • A bigger factor in AI fraud economy, is the circular fake assets and fake revenue. $1T valuations in top 2 LLM providers implies $50B-$100B eventual recurring profits with little to no reinvestment. $1.75T SpaceX valuation was based entirely on fraud of at least 5x more expensive space data centers than earth and supposed 90% of value of company is based on Grok enterprise TAM. IPO was boosted with fake Anthropic paper lease where they were renting gpus for 5x the cost, and over 2x the list price of on demand rates from Nebius/coreweave, but with instant cancel clauses, and “first 2 months free” scam. 11th hour similar Google deal (who owns 6%+ of spacex) further amplified the SpaceX fraud IPO.

    The main circular fraud though, is most of the companies (Nvidia not mentioned) in article put an inflated asset on their balance sheet, while trading revenue credits for those investments. Article’s “footnote debt” is largely to serve those revenue credits.



  • I don’t get the general criticism. It will all depend on details. If you can “rent” a $1000 device for $500 in payments over 2 years, and have the option to pay $500 at end of 2 years, or pay $250 over the next 2 years, then that is a better deal for you, including the delayed payments, and your optionality. If rampocalypse is over in 2 years, you can get a better device. How far away from the above formula implementation is matters though.

    An advantage with buying a “good phone” is that Apple needs to keep their trade in incentives high to get you to upgrade later. Lease provides a clear upfront proposition instead of hoping for future Apple generosity.



  • The AI hype/scarcity frenzy (bubble) was based on Meta and xAI hoarding GPUs for themselves instead of reselling compute, making it abundant instead of scarce. All of the other datacenters were hoping to have them as customers instead of competitors.

    2 lies in article:

    1. byline “proves compute is scarce” is opposite. This is not a real datacenter rental deal. It is a “can quit anytime” show deal. Token consumption is down 20% since march peak.

    2. “Compute costs are rising exponentially”. Blatant lie, in terms of compute pricing $/gpu hour. Rates are near their accounting floor (though not at rock bottom) for H series, and the faster newer cards are just 2x the $/hour instead of the 8x saturated performance difference.




  • hot-air balloons before plastics were often made of silk (and rubber), since most other materials are either too heavy (at least for practical purposes) or too thermally sensitive, and that’s an expensive experiment to be undertaking if you haven’t the first clue how it works.

    I have no idea how old “Chinese lanterns” (small hot air balloon carrying a candle) are, but I assume very old. Concept behind hot air balloon understood. and the most basic imagination would understand the scaling potential. That they also dominated silk supply would require a different explanation for why human basket sized balloons took so long to develop.