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Cake day: October 23rd, 2024

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  • hot-air balloons before plastics were often made of silk (and rubber), since most other materials are either too heavy (at least for practical purposes) or too thermally sensitive, and that’s an expensive experiment to be undertaking if you haven’t the first clue how it works.

    I have no idea how old “Chinese lanterns” (small hot air balloon carrying a candle) are, but I assume very old. Concept behind hot air balloon understood. and the most basic imagination would understand the scaling potential. That they also dominated silk supply would require a different explanation for why human basket sized balloons took so long to develop.








  • The fundamental lie behind the AI fraud is that compute is scarce relative to demand. OpenAI, Grok, Meta did overinvest in hoarding GPUs far ahead of their usage. Last 2 are now competing on hourly GPU market, and AI tokens/revenue has fallen 20% since spring peak, which is a bubble pop compared to 10x/year perpetual growth expectations behind the hoarding. While hourly gpu rental market is stable rather than declining, it is stable at very low prices, mostly for accounting reasons of not actually losing money intentionally. Deployed GPUs are abundant proven by accounting floor based pricing. A b300 can deliver 8x the tokens of an h200 but only rents for 2x more.





  • , Carney’s MOU with Alberta calls for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), purportedly to ameliorate environmental damage. But this is still a very costly, unproven technology. In Saskatchewan it has only achieved 60 per cent efficiency

    Ccs is a scam. Cheaper energy than coal can be achieved 10 months of the year, in canada, with coal plant as backup. Much lower emissions than 60% capture, and bigger negative of ccs is that it costs 10$ per watt. Ballpark of nuclear plants. Solar + batteries is $1 per watt.







  • Incredibly bad, too lenghty, mostly irrelevant criticisms of the fraud of space datacenters, followed up by the Skynet military justification of being unable to unplug skynet.

    Space datacenters from SpaceX are a fraud because they have a 5 year lifecycle with deorbiting of entire unit. The costs compared to 30 year lifecycle of terrestrial solar/battery powered datacenter energy is thus 6x higher (costs of shell/shield, solar, radiators is about the same but 6 replacements). Terrestrial building costs are $20/watt. SpaceX ambitions are to get $30m/launch costs. To be only 2x the terrestrial costs, launch costs need to be $1m (just the fuel costs) with deorbit being to fly off into space instead of a salvage trip.

    At 12x the costs, the competitive GPU rental hurdle has to be 12x more expensive than earth. Only military skynet applications would pay for this, and specifically, only permit mechahitler to decide if skynet is doing a good job.