

Well, I don’t think you’d be able to parse through the intentions of non-voters in such a way. A non-voter may be a protest non-voter, a non-voter who thinks their vote is worth nothing, a non-voter who was actually unable to vote, or a non-voter who thinks the two candidates are functionally the same for them, or any and all other reasons for non-voting. Just because a non-voter may not view their non-vote as a protest non-vote, doesn’t mean they don’t give a fuck and are okay with whatever outcome, is my overall point.
With that said, I don’t think a protest non-vote is the opposite of a complacent non-vote. Functionally they’re the same. I guess if you wanted to judge a person by their non-voting intentions, you could do something like that. But I’m not sure its worth the time.
I guess its worth noting that even though I agree with the sentiment of the meme and the goat story, it doesn’t map 1:1 in the real world. I don’t think someone is necessarily foolish to vote, for example. I did. But generally I agree with Henry David Thoreau when it comes down to it:
All voting is a sort of gaming, like checkers or back gammon, with a slight moral tinge to it, a playing with right and wrong, with moral questions; and betting naturally accompanies it. The character of the voters is not staked. I cast my vote, perchance, as I think right; but I am not vitally concerned that that right should prevail. I am willing to leave it to the majority. Its obligation, therefore, never exceeds that of expediency. Even voting for the right is doing nothing for it. It is only expressing to men feebly your desire that it should prevail. A wise man will not leave the right to the mercy of chance, nor wish it to prevail through the power of the majority.”
I gotta get back to you tomorrow more in depth but on the whole I agree that a single protest non vote is practically useless
But I also think that an invalid/inconsequential legitimizing vote may be more harmful than good…
Course the same could be said for protest votes, see: previous US election
I gotta think about it more