I don’t think it was a hoax, but campaign 101 is to be absolutely confident in your candidacy until the nanosecond you drop out. If you telegraph weakness to the voting public, and then end up staying in the race, that will be a millstone around your neck. Even if he was wavering in the weeks leading up to his dropout, there would be zero upside to communicating that publicly.

He may have been an unknown quantity to you in 2016, but for his supporters he was exactly what it said on the tin: a racist, angry old white man who yelled at the dinner table about all the things Fox News told him were wrong with this country. And after 4 years of his administration, he actually picked up votes the second time. Biden had the largest turnout in American history in 2020, but only ahead of Trump’s 2020 numbers.

If anything, he has confirmed to the conservative base that he is who he said he was. If Biden fails to motivate his base, he will lose, because Trump is not going to lose votes.