For the deep dive this week, I put together a matrix using the Expected Points stats from Pro-football-reference.com for Week 8. The matrix looks at the EP for the Passing game for each team against the opposing teams’ passing defense, and likewise for Rushing offenses vs rushing defenses. The first 2 columns show net Passing EP, the last 2 columns net Rushing EP.

The results should help forecast how much, and by which method, teams can move the ball against each other.

A = Away
H = Home
P = Passing
R = Rushing
D = Defense
O = Offense
ex. APO = Away Passing Offense

Full explanation about EP and the matrix using tonight’s Thursday Night Game - Bucs @ Bills in the article: NFL Expected Points Matrix - Week 8

Enjoy the game tonight!

nfllines.com NFL Expected Points Matrix - Week 8

Without posting the full article here, the Bucs should have slightly above average success passing against the Bills. The Bills should have an easy time passing against the Bucs.

In the running game, the Bills should have around average production against the Bucs rushing defense. The Bills have a good rushing offense, but it is countered by an excellent Bucs rushing defense. Meanwhile the Bucs have real difficulty running the ball, and against an average Bills rushing defense, they probably cannot rely on rushing the ball to carry the night.

The Bills should hope for good passing weather as such conditions would allow them to play to their biggest advantage, passing against the Bucs defense. Since the Bucs haven’t shown the ability to run the ball effectively, if the weather is good, look for a high % of passing from both teams.

If this holds true, this could be relatively high scoring from the Bills side of things. Something like Bills 31 Bucs 17 sounds about right.