German media outlets Süddeutsche Zeitung, WDR, and NDR also cite the report, noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin appears intent on testing NATO’s Article 5 guarantees. The alliance’s mutual defence clause obliges member states to come to one another’s aid if attacked. The assessment suggests Putin may seek to challenge how seriously that commitment would be honoured.
America is going to be balls deep in greenland and europe will not go to war over THAT.
If the EU won’t consider themselves to be at war when the part of the EU defensive pact zone that is called Greenland is invaded, they’re losing all credibility both internally and externally. Why would the EU defend Finland or the Baltics or Cyprus? Why would the EU organize against foreign powers funding violent rebellions inside EU territory (similar to how Russia funded Transnistria or the US funded the contras in Nicaragua)?
There is no better red line for France to launch their nukes than the invasion of Greenland. As seen with Russia, any grace given to cult of personality dictators only emboldens them and their worshipers. The only fair response to madman theory is to call the ‘insane’ administration’s bluff and let the people who don’t want them and their families to become radioactive piles of ash take the responsibility of defying insane orders.
Yep. Here’s a fun possible timeline:
US takes over greenland. Europe won’t respond militarily, but will cut off most ties to 'murika, and the US government will be like “why would europe be so mean to us, we were only trying to keep them safe from Russia and China?!”.
Europe won’t pivot too hard to China/India, but they’ll become preferred trading-partners. EU will become the bastion of actual Democracy.
China will take that whole debacle as a green light to take Taiwan, or just re-taking manchuria (and keep taking bites out of Russia until they have reached the arctic). I honestly don’t think they’ll waste energy on Taiwan. Their military build-up and posturing towards Taiwan is probably just a ruse to lull Russia into a false sense of security.
Russia will throw a hissyfit (threaten nukes, fail to deliver, and get fucked on the ground/air/sea). The US will try to come to their aid under the guise of stopping the “yellow threat” or whatever. That’ll eventually fizzle out as the US devolves into a civil war (that will hopefully be over quickly, but will probably make the US truly isolationist for at least 50 years). Europeans might lament the aggression of China in public, but will privately go “fuck yeah get 'em”.
The Russian federation will collapse and splinter, and the rest of the 21st century will be a mess of global instability and the odd rogue van-borne nuke going off here and there, because swamp-troglodytes infested with a mongol khanate mindset (muscovy) should never have had nukes in the first place.
Doesn’t this scenario essentially cut off the US from advanced chip manufacturing? The chips are made in taiwan and the machines for making the chips are made in europe.
Maybe. There’s no guarantee that every European nation would be on board with sanctioning the US in this scenario.
The Netherlands (where I believe they have the only manufacturing base of the machines that make advanced chips) might decide that it’s not in their best interest to cut the US off.
Anyways I hope this Greenland shenanigans dies on the vine and my silly scenario never comes to pass.
Yes ASML is only in netherlands. Nothing else on earth produces EUV lithography machines of that scale. It’s a single monopoly
Also netherlands & Hungary definitely won’t sanction usa, they love trump
No, they don’t. But nevertheless, they make the machines and money is more worth than not selling it to exactly everyone
What does China stand to gain by attacking Russia?
@LilaOrchideen@feddit.org already mentioned rare-earth’s, but Siberia is also extremely rich in non-rare minerals and metals. China would also stand to gain oil, gas, and coal deposits. However one probably overlooked resource is fresh water.
Water is already a massive issue in the northern half of China (not just the arid west, but even around Beijing). Eastern Russia has a lot of fresh water, like for instance Lake Baikal which contains 20% of the planet’s unfrozen freshwater. I saw some talk (5+ years ago) about China wanting to buy water-rights to this lake and pipeline it through Mongolia, but I’ve not heard of there being any concrete plans in the works yet.
Another possible gain would be easier access to the pacific and the arctic. In the extreme scenario where the Russian Federation splinters, and the eastern states of that federation find themselves without a way to make ends meet, China might make some very favorable deals in the region. Hell I wouldn’t be surprised if several of them ended up federalizing with China (or something very similar; some form of vassalage).
And with global warming comes two huge boons:
Siberia’s tundra thawing, making it easier to access untapped resources.
North pole remains largely ice-free for at least parts of the year, making shipping between eastern Asia and Europe cheaper and faster.
rare earths in siberia etc