German media outlets Süddeutsche Zeitung, WDR, and NDR also cite the report, noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin appears intent on testing NATO’s Article 5 guarantees. The alliance’s mutual defence clause obliges member states to come to one another’s aid if attacked. The assessment suggests Putin may seek to challenge how seriously that commitment would be honoured.
Clearly, Putin underestimated Ukraine at the beginning of his invasion. But Russia can maintain the war against Ukraine for a long time to come.
Putin has no other choice: the entire Russian economy is dependent on war and armaments and would collapse if peace were concluded. Putin could no longer control his country without an external enemy.
Hence his narrative of the “Nazis” who must be fought in Ukraine (and soon on other borders (see Suwalki Gap)). This narrative of the Nazis ties in with the russian history of the Great Patriotic War, and this resonates with the Russian population. Putin is building a sequel to WWII, with renewed external threats, and the people are receptive to that.
Therefore, Putin is not at all interested in a peace treaty. And the conflict with NATO countries has already begun: the severed power cables and data cables in the Baltic Sea and the attacks on our information systems should have been regarded as acts of war from their beginning. The threat is there NOW. And Europe and NATO must build up strength.
Barring help from the US, I would be shocked if they don’t have hyperinflation within 15 months. Maybe they can keep going through that, or maybe not.