In this article, we are going to look into the influence referees and penalties have on a typical NFL game and season. First, all the penalty data comes from nflpenalties.com. If you would like to reveiw any of the data here, or data going back 10 years, you can do so on their site.
Let’s break this article down into 2 parts:
- What influence do penalties have on the game?
- What penalties are being called this season in comparison to pervious seasons?
If you would like to read more about the penalty research issues & fixes, the full article is posted here:
NFL 2023 - Referees & Penalties Midseason Report
What influence do penalties have on an NFL Game?
First we should try to use the data to determine the amount penalties influence the outcome of NFL games. To do that we are going to look at two charts:
- Win % by Penalty Calls Differential
- Win % by Penalty Yardage Differential
Let’s start with Win % based on the difference of total penalties called against each team. In the chart below you will see the penalty differnces , amount of times a difference occured, team records, & Win %.
Win % by Penalty Amount Difference
Look at the range from 8 Fewer to 8 More in the win % column. You will see almost a direct relationship between penalty difference and Win %. The less penalties called against a team, the higher its chances of winning. Outside the 8 Fewer to 8 More range we get into smaller sample sizes, so we are going to see more chaos in the records & Win % numbers
How about the relationship between Penalty Yardage and Win %, will we see the same thing there?
We have many small ranges in this chart so we are going to see a bit of chaos, but again if you look from 60-64 Fewer to 60-64 More range, you will again see a strong correlation between Win % and penalty yardage differential.
Win % by Penalty Yardage Difference
Therefore, the amount penalties called against a team, and/or the more penalty yardage called against a team relative its opponent, can swing Win % about 10% in either direction. Thus this +/- 10% influence is about the influence referees can have on any single game, assuming they dont go completely flag crazy against one team.
What penalties are being called this season in comparison to previous seasons?
The following chart will show NFL Penalties over the past 5 years broken down by quarter, offense, defense, ST, amount of penalties and penalty yardage. As you can see, if we project out the 2023 penalties, we are headed for the most penalties called in a season since 2019, and the most penalties called on the defense since 2020. So it is fair to say, based on the projections, that referees are having more of an influence in 2023 than they have had since at least 2020.
If they are calling more penalties, what kind of penalties are the calling more of & when are they calling them?
This is the sticky wicket. Different penalties have different punishments. All are punished by yardage, but some grant automatic first downs. However, automatic 1st down penalties are the drive changers. When they are taking place late in a game, it is going to appear as though, and in fact it actually may be, a game that is unduly influenced by penalties.
Look a the amount of penalties called in the 4th quarter thus far in 2023(445). This projects out to about 900 4th quarter penalties in 2023, which again would be the most in the 4th quarter since 2019.
The real damning information comes in form of the following charts. The first is Automatic First Down Passing Penalties FOR each team. In this chart the team listed is the beneficiary of an automatic 1st down penalty via the 4 main types of defensive passing penalties: Defensive Holding, Defensive Pass Interference, Illegal Contact, & Roughing the Passer.
As we can see, Tennessee has benefitted the most and Chicago has benefitted the least. And there is a large difference between teams that benefitted most vs teams that have benefitted least.
Automatic 1st Down Penalties FOR
Here is the same chart but now we are looking at automatic 1st penalties AGAINST each team
Automatic 1st Down Penalties AGAINST
Below is a chart showing NET automatic 1st down penalties by team(FOR - AGAINST). It is sorted from team most punished to most helped. Since all these penalties come with auto 1st down, the Total column shows the amount of free 1st downs a team has given away(negative#) or gained(positive #).
NFL 2023 NET automatic first down penalties
Now I am simply going to repost one chart with 2022 and extrapolated 2023 data. This should allow us to see changes in amount/type of calls between 2022 & 2023.
Automatic First Down Penalty Calls 2022 vs 2023
So in 2022, there were 610 of these types of penalties called against the defense for a total of 6529 yards.
In 2023, there are projected to be 695 types of these penalties called for a total of 7348 yards.
The changes:
- Total calls - up from 2.24 calls to 2.56 calls, an increase of 13.95%
- Defensive Holding calls - Down 10.87%
- Defensive Pass Interfence calls - Up 27.98%
- Illegal Contact calls - Up 26.30%
- Roughing the Passer calls - Up 27.82%
So while one of the 4 calls is showing a decrease of just under 11%, it is the least damaging penalty(along with Illegal Contact) among the four. Meanwhile, the most damaging types of calls, Pass Interference & Roughing the Passer are both up nearly 28%(as is illegal contact). Essentially all the referees have done is changed a few of the defensive holding calls into illegal contact calls. While at the same time throwing a fairly massive increase of supremely damaging defensive penalties.
And if we simply combine this information, with the information about 4th quarter penalties being up, it means the referees are throwing more of the most damaging types of defensive passing penalties in 2023 than they have since at least 2020. By doing this they are going to put there influence on games at the very edges of that +/- 10%, as opposed to having less influence over outcomes this year.
Enjoy your football Sunday & best of luck to your team. They may need it.
I wish broadcasts and other media talked about penalty stats similar to other stats. There’s only like 1 website that actually tracks penalty data like this and most people don’t know about it.
The average r/nfl poster is going to be shocked to see KC with no RTP calls and middle of the pack in automatic first down. People think KC gets more help from the refs when its simply not true. It won’t change their firmly set belief op, but it will be a temporary moment of confusion.
People think KC gets more help from the refs
No, people think KC gets help from the refs when they need it. They’re a great team, so obviously only need it in certain situations.
Nobody expects KC to get more calls when they’re already blowing out the Chargers in a W5 game. They do care a bit more when KC is gifted a free AFCCG win against the Bengals for an unnecessary roughness penalty that was no more egregious than the roughing the passer that wasn’t called against them the drive (or two?) before.
I also expect that if you went through every play run by Travis Kelce and compared it to every play run by Rob Gronkowski, you would see massive reffing favouritism for Kelce.
The only thing that gets me about the Chiefs is the large amount of drive-extending holding/defensive passive interference calls they seem to get on 3rd/4th down after an incompletion.
I think I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve seen Mahomes do the “Mahomes point” the last 2 seasons. The Chiefs may not get more penalty calls in their favor, but they do seem to come at all the right times. Dunno if that’s my own bias tho 🤷♂️
Good analysis! At first I was just chalking it up to undisciplined (i.e., bad) teams playing badly and getting punished as a result. But the increase in impactful penalties called in the 4th is oddly both higher and broadly consistent in terms of rate.
But I also find it interesting that it doesn’t correlate very strongly with overall team records. Some of the best teams are among the more punished, and some of the worst teams are among the most benefited. It impacts individual games, but not individual teams. If I gambled, I would be concerned.
My intuition generally feels like the goal is close games, not necessarily helping certain teams. It’d be interesting to see a break down of what calls kept a losing team in the game in the 4th quarter. Keep those eye balls on the game (and ads) as long as possible.
You are absolutely correct regarding records(not sure whether you ran this or felt it)
The combined record for the Top 16 Most Negatively Impacted By Auto 1st Down Penalties: 70 - 69
The record for the the Top 16 teams that have benefitted most by auto first down penalties: 67 - 68
Statistical Gold Star for you sir!
Didn’t run it, just looked at the data. You laid things out really well so the visualization on its own was enough to get an accurate feel just by looking. So kudos goes to you really!
Gods work
This is Vegas’s influence
This actually convinced me the league’s Not crooked because nobody wants to see Tennessee in a Super Bowl
Yet isn’r scoring is down?
The league is being very soft on Jacksonville.
Not a lot of Jags fans in here
Nitpick: your third image’s “Team Percentage” column is in decimal. BOOOOOO!
This is all a distraction. The NFL WANTS us to complain about and blame reffing so we don’t notice why the games actually suck and seem so random: The coaching and players suck. We’ve got Tommy Devito and Clay Tune starting games. The Jets are one QB shy of being a contender, but their dick owner is buddies with Zach Wilson’s family so I guess flush the season down the toilet. Tua just takes fourth down sacks when they’re losing to preserve his stats, and he’s still going to get MVP votes. Someone recently hired Josh fucken McDaniels as a head coach. Texans let a chaplain run their team for a while. How many fourth down and clock management blunders have there been? This is absolute malpractice that a company so large can be run by such buffoons.
Until refs can call RTP correctly, QBs should just play under flag-football rules. Seems every weak we see multiple weak-ass RTP calls where the QB was barely grazed yet the refs call it like they were murdered.
I didn’t need stats to know the Bears have been screwed by the refs every week, but I’m glad they’re showing it anyway.
Ok but here’s a fundamental question:
Is this a change in referring or a change in playing style / ability? Is there a way to determine, empirically, if players are actually committing penalties and an increased rate - as opposed to simply being called for more penalties?
Also, are there teams that are just actually more disciplined and commit fewer penalties?
And one final question, only semi-related:
WHY DO DBs WEAR BRIGHT-COLORED GLOVES??? If you wanna get away with holding, don’t wear bright yellow gloves!!
It’s why the NFL is classified as “entertainment” and not sports.
It’s fixed. Sometimes subtly, sometimes obviously.
Jags fans shit all over themselves when they didn’t get any ref help against the Chiefs last year. I see why 😂