The Panthers is the answer for both

We can look at Pythagorean expectation, which predicts the expected number of wins based on points scored vs. points allowed at this point in the season. And then teams that are winning more games than they “should” based on points scored vs allowed are “worse than their record”, and conversely teams that are winning fewer games than they should are “better than their record.”

By 9 or 10 games played in the expansion era (since 2002), 62% of teams are within 1 win of their expected wins. About 87% are within 2 wins. This season, interestingly, 100% of teams are within 2 wins of expected, and 85% are within 1 win.

There is 1 team who is 2 wins below expected (better than their record):

• Buffalo Bills. Expected: 7-3. Actual: 5-5.

There are 4 team who are 2 wins above expected (worse than their record):

• Philadelphia Eagles. Expected: 6-3. Actual: 8-1.
• Detroit Lions. Expected: 5-4. Actual: 7-2
• Seattle Seahawks. Expected: 4-5. Actual: 6-3.
• Pittsburgh Steelers. Expected: 4-5. Actual: 6-3.

Now personally I’d argue that no team is really better or worse than their record, because a team that is getting significantly more wins than expected based on points probably has the benefit of skillful players and coaches who can figure out how to keep games close and exploit advantages to squeak out victories (e.g., the Steelers). And teams that are below expected conversely underperform in such situations by habitually making costly errors in close games (Bills). Also, it can be skewed by big blowout wins or losses which in some cases could be isolated “burn the tape” outlier games that don’t really reflect a team’s average performance (Lions and Seahawks vs. Ravens). So make of this what you will.

Chargers got two wins against two of the worst QB situations in the league. Every other team has given us fits, whether they’re really good or really bad.

The only reason we keep getting close games is because Herbert is very very good (though even he has had some bad games this year). Otherwise we would be getting blown out every week because our defense is AWFUL against any offense that isn’t one of the worst in the league.

Over the last six years, the Steelers are always a perplexing amount over .500 in relation to the often times ridiculous product they put on the field.

Vikings or chargers better Steelers worse

Who are the raiders? Like genuinely

The Seahawks do not pass the eye test.

Better than record- Bengals Worse than record- Seahawks

Vikings are better than their record. Insane amount of fumbles those first 5 games and never had a chance to recover any of them

9’ers , 9’ers

This 49ers team had absolutely no business losing to the PJ Walker lead Browns.

The Vikings and Bengals losses I can stomach… but that Browns loss bothers me.

Patriots here (2-8)

If we had an average quarter back we would be 5-5

If we didn’t have our defense we would be 1-9

I want to say we’re better than our record, but I’m not sure how we’re doing this with our roster. My brain is waiting for the wheels to fall off but my heart is invested in a playoff run. I told myself I wasn’t going to be invested this year too.

Ranking records versus point differential then Pittsburgh (obviously) is the worst compared to their record and Buffalo is doing the best.

Some other notable teams doing better than their point differential (ie they’re losing big but winning close) are Philly, Detroit, Seattle, Jacksonville and Cincinnati.

I’d say Philly (and to some extent Detroit) is just because they ease off the gas when they’re already winning and Cincinnati is on the upswing and shouldn’t be worried. But Seattle and Jacksonville could start being worried.

Nobody can beat the Ravens.

Except the Ravens.