DVOA means efficiency per play and DYAR is total volume. So by football outsiders metrics, Stroud is the 2nd best performing qb this year on a play by play basis and the most valuable overall.
His DYAR is 1031. on pace for 1964 DYAR over this season.
His DVOA is 36.8%, meaning he is 36.8% above a league average QB.
To give context to how impressive this is, I will list a few QB seasons with similar metrics.
Aaron Rodgers in 2020 in his 48 TD 5 INT season had a 33.7% DVOA and 1649 DVOA. Granted this was a 16 game season.
Mahomes 50 TD season was 39.9% DVOA and 2031 DYAR.
So Stroud is playing at a similar level to 2 MVP, HOF QBs best seasons
If you are skeptical about these advanced metrics, Stroud also grades well in traditional ones.
He is 3rd in ANY/A (and the 2 ahead of him have much better offensive rosters), 6th in passer rating and 13th in pass success rate.
He should be in serious MVP consideration, especially with the defenses he has faced so far.
Link to new Football Outsiders
Image of DVOA stats
Stroud wont be winning rookie mvp and league mvp in the same season. It’s happened once and that in 1957 when Jim Brown won both pre AFL NFL merger.
I mean, it’s not happening cause he’s on pace for 28tds and his teams unlikely to win more than 10 games or their division and are currently the 7th seed.
Unless they go 7-1 and he plays far better than he already has it’s not happening. Especially if one of Mahomes/Hurts/Goff/Purdy get their team to 14-15 wins