When it comes to luck in the NFL we can boil it down to two old addages:
- It’s better to be lucky than good.
- Good teams make their own luck.
So which is it? Let’s try to use some statistics and metrics to see which NFL teams have been the luckiest and unluckiest, and see if there is an addage that fits the 2023 season.
To keep the reddit post as short as possible, the metrics methodology part has been cut out. If you are interested in the thought process and methodology behind the luck quotient, you can read the entire article here: In the NFL, it’s better to be lucky than good. Or is it?
The Luck Quotient
The Luck Quotient will be a measurement of how lucky or unlucky each NFL team has been thus far in 2023. The one luck component I could not add was the effect of injuries. Clearly it would be unlucky to lose your starting QB for the year, while remaining relatively injury free would be lucky for any team.
Unfortunately, I could not find a free source that listed all injuries by all teams in terms of man games lost. I know the stats exist, but NFLLINES always limits statistics and metric to publicly availble stats. If it were possible to add in the injuries metrics, we could do something where we assign value for starters, substitute and partial game injuries. Unfortunately this will have to wait until such stats become available to all.
Luck Quotient metrics will either count for their full value, 1/2 their value, 1/4 of their value, or a flat 0.50 or 0.25 StDev units. If you are interested in the how/why of the metrics, use the link above to read the full post. With that in mind, here is the list of metrics I chose for the Luck Quotient:
Full Value Metrics
- FG %
- Opponent Fumble Recovery %
- Interceptions thrown
Half Value Metrics
- Punt return avg
- Kick return average
0.50 StDev units per occurance
- Returned Fumble for TD
- Returned Interception for TD
- Recorded a Safety
Quarter Value Metric
- Extra Point %
0.25 StDev units per occurance
- Punt return TD
- Kick return TD
The Luckiest & Unluckiest NFL Teams in 2023
After we total up the scores for each metric, we are left with the final Luck Quotient for each team. The 3 luckiest teams are the only 3 teams that scored over 3.0:
- Dallas(3.74)
- Houston(3.16)
- Tampa Bay(3.06)
Dallas scored 2.5 of their 3.74 luck points from defensive returns for TD and a safety. Houston has no defensive scores and Tampa has a Interception return for TD. If we eliminated luck points for defensive scores, Houston would be the luckiest team(3.16), followed by Tampa bay(2.56) and LA Chargers (2.46).
At the other end of the luck spectrum, the three unluckiest teams are the only 3 teams that scored lower than -2.0:
- New England(-3.67)
- Buffalo(-2.70)
- LA Rams(-2.28)
If we eliminated defensive scores, New England(-3.17) would still be the unluckiest, but the Rams(-2.28), would flip spots with the Bills (-2.20), and the Vikings(2 defensive scores) would drop & tie for 3rd unluckiest(-2.20). Both the Patriots & Bills have 1 defensive score, while the Rams have zero. So their unluckiness extends to their defensive scoring prowess as well.
One statistical oddity, note the Denver Broncos Punt and Kick return units. Punt return avg of 20.7 yds and kick return avg of 33.6 yds with a TD. Surely that kick return average is inflated due to the TD return, but the punt return average is also off the charts. Gold Stars to the Denver kick/punt return unit and coach for their performance in 2023 so far.
The other unusual tidbit, Green Bay’s opponents only recovering 18.75% of fumbles so far. The lowest value for that I could find since 2018 was the 2021 Arizona Cardinal’s opponents recovered only 30.51% of fumbles & 2019 New Orleans Saints’ opponents recovered only 30.77% of fumbles. The ball is bouncing the Packers way so far.
Is It Better To Be Lucky Than Good, Or Do Good Teams Make Their Own Luck?
The record for each team is listed in the final columns of the Luck Quotient chart. And the answer at least for 2023 is pretty clear.
- The 8 Luckiest NFL teams in 2023 have a combined record of 36 – 36 (.500).
- The 8 Unluckiest NFL teams in 2023 have a combined record of 29 – 50 (.367).
- If we combine the 8 luckiest and 8 unluckiest teams, those 16 teams have a combined record of 65 – 86 (.4305).
- The 16 teams with average luck have a combined record of 86 – 65 (.5695).
Thus, good teams make their own luck, at least in 2023.
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With your weighting here, penalties not called & phantom penalties wrongly called should be added with a weight of 10
Even tho I’m unable to really grok the spreadsheet and the methodolgy, I fully appreciate the work that went into it.
Well done.
I was fully expecting that to be the Manning face.
Also, is that saying the Chargers are the luckiest team in the league, but also only 4-5? cause that would completely track with a Chargers stat.
Oh wow. So the Giants are the third luckiest team in the NFL, while being 2-8. So we are actually worse than our record!
This is cool. As much as people want to pretend there’s no luck involved, there is plenty. If this was meant to be predictive, I’d add red zone and longer fourth downs to this. Not that red zone is “luck”, but it is completely random year to year.
I enjoy this thread if nothing else cause teams that are doing well somehow get upset that some of that might be due to luck, like their team is somehow winning all those games on skill.
NFL games are so close, and evenly matched a lot of the time, one weird bounce of a fumble, or a WR having a ball go through his hands for a pick 6 can basically decide a game.
There’s more luck that most fans want to admit, hell a good portion of every teams success is based on how lucky they are with injuries.
For sure. Plenty of skills/strategy, some luck. If Gabe Davis catches that one pass and scores and Bills win, media is on them as an title contender and Allen for MVP. It deflects off his hands right to a defender and they lose at the buzzer and now Allen is a disaster and they fire the coordinator.
I don’t agree with kicking and punt returns being “luck”. We spent a 4th round pick on a specialist returner and he broke off a 60 yard punt return against the Jets. That isn’t really luck…
So much of this stuff is “lucky you drafted and developed guys who can make these kind of plays”.
Like others have mentioned, a lot of these statistics you’re using aren’t luck based. I think the ones that may work are the following: fumble recovery, fumble return td, # of opponent field goal misses that have nothing to do with the defense (like if the kicker clips a gimme fg to the right), an interception as a result of a perfectly thrown pass (the Gabe Davis special), a pass that should have been intercepted, any sort of pass that had been tipped and it’s outcome, team that wins the coin toss, etc
Honestly, the more I think of it, I think you would have to watch every single minute of film to chalk up “lucky” plays. Like some could be bad players or bad coaching, but you would need some subjective method to differentiate that with luck. I keep thinking of Robert Meachem’s fumble recovery touchdown on the 2009 Saints ball vs Washington… and I can’t tell if that’s luck, a good play by Meachem or if it was stupid decision by the DB. I guess luck is the combination of all of it.
I like the concept but your method doesn’t track with me. Like if you took interceptions over number of interception worthy throws I could follow but just interceptions doesn’t make sense. Same with FG %. Don’t see what luck has to do with that.
I know you’re ignoring injuries but the Jets are not at all a lucky team.
Its not luck, its destiny.
I get why the Colts are so low- the last time they had luck was back in 2018
Jets are not unlucky. They knew exactly what they were getting
This is so dumb
I am too high for all of this.
Yeah this isn’t luck. You’d have to compare the probability of a certain thing to succeed with the outcome for all of these, not just the outcome. If a team only takes FG from 20 years or less they will get 98% of them without any luck involved.
The Bears should be at the very bottom by virtue of being the Bears.