A few weeks ago, I made this post looking at the contenders for the #1 overall pick. Now that some time has gone by, I thought I’d take another look at how everyone is doing in their quest for futility.
However, there has been one major change. One of the six contenders from the earlier post has been replaced! The Denver Broncos have rather inconveniently (for me making this post) improved enough to take themselves largely out of contention for the #1 overall pick. As such, they have been replaced by… The Tennessee Titans!
Incidentally, the list now consists of every team in the league with less than 4 wins.
Matchups between teams with less than 4 wins in bold
| Week # | New England | Tennessee | NY Giants | Chicago | Carolina | Arizona |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | W |
-- | W |
W |
L |
|
| 8 | L |
-- | L |
L |
W |
L |
| 9 | L |
-- | L |
L |
L |
L |
| 10 | L |
-- | L |
W |
L |
W |
| 11 | Bye | -- | W |
L |
L |
L |
| 12 | @ NYG | CAR | NE | @ MIN | @ TEN | LAR |
| 13 | LAC | IND | Bye | Bye | @ TB | @ PIT |
| 14 | @ PIT | @ MIA | GB | DET | @ NO | Bye |
| 15 | KC | HOU | @ NO | @ CLE | ATL | SF |
| 16 | @ DEN | SEA | @ PHI | ARI | GB | @ CHI |
| 17 | @ BUF | @ HOU | LAR | ATL | @ JAX | @ PHI |
| 18 | NYJ | JAX | PHI | @ GB | TB | SEA |
If the season ended today, here’s where these teams would be picking:
| Bears (via Panthers) | #1 |
|---|---|
| Cardinals | #2 |
| Patriots | #3 |
| Bears | #4 |
| Giants | #5 |
| Titans | #6 |
Current SoS rankings:
(the weaker your schedule, the better your draft position in the event of a tie in record)
- Bears
- Giants
- Panthers
- Titans
- Patriots
- Cardinals
(caveat: during my calculations, division opponents were only counted once. I don’t know if that’s how the NFL does it)
Predictions:
- Obviously, at this point, the Panthers (and by extension the Bears) are running away with the worst record in the NFL. They have only one win, they have a rough schedule to close out, and the chance to gain ground by losing to the Titans, AND they have a weaker SoS than the Cardinals, giving them a tiebreaker should they somehow win a second game. They also have a putrid offense across the board and horrible coaching. One would have to pretty much pencil the Panthers in as the worst record in the league at this point. The only plausible wins left on the schedule at this point are really the Titans and Falcons.
- Thanks to both the Panthers’ ineptitude and their own, the Bears are a heavy favorite to be picking #1 overall. Unfortunately, they fucked up by beating the Raiders and nearly beat the Lions by mistake, so they’ve damaged the chances of their own pick being #1 overall. That said, they’ve got a gauntlet coming up, with the surging Vikings (excepting tonight), the Lions, and the Browns all coming up. They also have a chance to move ahead the Cardinals by losing to Arizona in a few weeks. However, winning that game is potentially disastrous, and the Falcons and Packers are frighteningly winnable.
- Speaking of the Cardinals, they’re closing in on usurping the Panthers for the #1 pick, although they’ll need the Panthers to win a couple games to do it. Luckily for the Cardinals, with games against Sean McVay, the 49ers, the Eagles, and the Steelers coming up, they’re in little danger of picking up a win themselves any time soon.
- The Patriots are a bit of a dark horse for the #1 pick. Their tough SoS works against them in the tiebreakers, but they have a great opportunity to lose to the Giants next week to gain a head-to-head tiebreaker there, and the difficult schedule obviously improves their chances of losing out. Their next 2 games are their easiest though, and could easily take them right out of #1 pick contention by early December.
- The Giants really fucked up by sweeping the Commanders, making their road to the #1 pick very difficult. They have a very winnable game next week vs the Patriots, then have a bye week before playing the Packers at home. Going 2-0 would effectively remove them from #1 pick contention, although it’s possible that Devito turns out to be the guy… I guess. If they can survive the next 2 games, they have a great path to 3-14, plus a tiebreaker over the Patriots.
- The newcomer Titans are a real wild card here. It seems unlikely they’ll lose to the Panthers, which would pretty much take them right out of contention, but the Titans have been very inconsistent on offense while the Panthers have had a decent defense all year - if they can get pressure on the beleaguered Titans line, all bets are off there. If the Titans do manage to lose to the Panthers, they could easily losing out with games at the Dolphins, 2 games against the Texans, and the Jags, Saints, and Seahawks.
What are your thoughts on where the top contenders for the #1 pick will finish?
Carolina’s ROS is crazy, they’re the worst team in the league and yet they won’t be huge underdogs in any of those games. Incredibly lucky Young doesn’t have to play outdoors in the north.