TLDR: A few conditions exist where the Cowboys would be good enough to clinch the 5th seed by December 17, but bad enough where they are eliminated from division contention. The Cowboys would have a full month of not playing a relevant game (December 17th to January 13th-15th). This is an unlikely scenario but I got bored.

Conditions that need to happen:

COWBOYS

Week 13: W vs Seahwaks

Week 14: L vs Eagles

Week 15: W vs Bills

Record after December 17th: 10-4

Worst possible record: 10-7

Best possible record: 13-4

EAGLES

Go 3-0 over next three weeks

Week 13: 49ers

Week 14: Cowboys

Week 15: Seahawks

Record after December 17th: 13-1

Worst possible record: 13-4 with tiebreaks over cowboys

SEAHAWKS

Lose at least 2 of the next 3 with 1 loss coming against Cowboys.

Week 13: Cowboys

Week 14: 49ers

Week 15: Eagles

Record after December 17th: 7-7

Best possible record: 10-7 without tiebreaks

VIKINGS

Lose the next 2 games

Week 13: Bye

Week 14: Raiders

Week 15: Bengals

Record after December 17th: 6-8

Best possible record: 10-8

PACKERS

Lose 2 of the next 3

Week 13: Chiefs

Week 14: Giants

Week 15: Bucs

Record after December 17th: 6-8

Best possible record: 10-8

RAMS

Lose 2 of the next 3

Week 13: Browns

Week 14: Ravens

Week 15: Commanders

Record after December 17th: 6-8

Best possible record: 10-8

NFC SOUTH

Two of the Falcons (5-6), Saints (5-6), and Bucs (4-7) get to 8 losses by Dec 17th. Falcons and Bucs play each other so guaranteed L for one of them.

Next 3 if each team

Falcons: Jets, Bucs, Panthers

Saints: Lions, Panthers, Giants

Bucs: Panthers, Falcons, Packers