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Lakers
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Clippers
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Warriors
3 (tie). TWolves
3 (tie). Suns
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Nuggets
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Grizzlies
Expectations are high all over the West, even for a few teams I don’t even project to crack the top seven. A few teams are going to be terribly disappointed come April, and that could have some serious ramifications for the next offseason.
In the meantime, get your popcorn and appreciate the race we might have. It projects to be close enough for the gods of randomness to have a field day. It’s theoretically possible we have 11 teams tied at 44-37 on the last day of the season.
More probably, factors like injuries, shooting variance and unexpected breakout years tilt the playing field in favor of a few teams and away from some others. Nonetheless, the margins among the top seven in particular project to be razor-thin, portending both a regular-season chase for seeds and home-court advantage that could go to the final day of the season, and another topsy-turvy postseason with little to distinguish “favorites” from underdogs.
I’m not picking a seven-way tie, although I was tempted, because I do see at least some small margin between first and seventh in the regular season. But with only five games separating these teams in my projected standings, the capriciousness of random variance could easily offset any difference
I love it. Give Hollinger credit for going outside the box.
I will say this—as I posted a few weeks ago, I think the Grizzlies are gonna be more than fine without Ja—I see them winning 15 games minimum without Ja. I see 15-10 at least. With Ja, this can be a 55-58 win team.
The Grizz starting five without Ja seems to be Smart-Bane-Kennard-Jackson Jr.-Adams. That is going to win a ton of games. If they go with Ziaire in the starting 5 who has been impressive in preseason, Luke and DRose make for a really fun bench pair. The Grizzlies are gonna be great. They’re also younger than most of the top West teams so health should be less of a red flag, although it isn’t a non-issue…Jackson/Smart/Adams are guys to watch on that front. If healthy the Grizz are a big problem.
There is no team that’s proven they can shake off controversy in the regular season better than Memphis. Jenkins has them ready to play.