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Lakers
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Clippers
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Warriors
3 (tie). TWolves
3 (tie). Suns
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Nuggets
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Grizzlies
Expectations are high all over the West, even for a few teams I don’t even project to crack the top seven. A few teams are going to be terribly disappointed come April, and that could have some serious ramifications for the next offseason.
In the meantime, get your popcorn and appreciate the race we might have. It projects to be close enough for the gods of randomness to have a field day. It’s theoretically possible we have 11 teams tied at 44-37 on the last day of the season.
More probably, factors like injuries, shooting variance and unexpected breakout years tilt the playing field in favor of a few teams and away from some others. Nonetheless, the margins among the top seven in particular project to be razor-thin, portending both a regular-season chase for seeds and home-court advantage that could go to the final day of the season, and another topsy-turvy postseason with little to distinguish “favorites” from underdogs.
I’m not picking a seven-way tie, although I was tempted, because I do see at least some small margin between first and seventh in the regular season. But with only five games separating these teams in my projected standings, the capriciousness of random variance could easily offset any difference
It’s nice to try and pick shit out of the box and try to predict.
It’s boring but barring serious injuries to Steph/LeBron/Jokic/KD/Book, it’ll probably just be Nuggets and then Suns/Warriors/Lakers in some order, let’s be real. Warriors are probably a bit better than last year without the chemistry issues, Lakers were already a lot better the second half of last season and the Nuggets/Suns are self explanatory.
Some notes:
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Nugs not at the top is just silly. I like the Grizz, I do, but no Morant for 25 games is already handicapping them in a competitive West.
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Lakers went to the Conference Finals last year and are objectively more talented. You can make the injury argument all you want, but their team was worse last year, got injured a lot, and still made the Conference Finals.
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I feel like spots 2-10 are an 8-sided dice roll
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grizzlies over the nuggets with Ja missing the 1st 25 games of the season is a wild take
Hollinger is a known Nuggets hater
He’s a ngges hater?
Ja missed 21 games last year though and JJJ, Bane, Clarke and Adams also missed 19, 34, 36, and 40 games respectively…and they were the 2nd seed not far behind a fully healthy Nuggets.
Ja missing 25 games and everyone else healthy besides Clarke is a healthier season for them lol
I see a lot of people saying that the Grizzlies’ record with Ja is really good, but they also traded his backup Tyus Jones away too!
Alas, the Warriors lack large expiring contracts to help grease a trade, unless they’re willing to discuss moving Thompson … the type of thing they probably should be open to if we’re being coldly logical, but is a tough emotional hill for an organization to climb.
Chris Paul is making $31 million and is non-guaranteed for next year.
Hollinger has been saying that the Warriors lack the star power to win championships since like 2020, it’s hardly surprising he’s suggesting this.
My understanding was that the current general consensus is the Lakers, healthy, are built better than the Clippers, healthy.
If this is is the case, the only excuse for the Clippers being higher is expectation of injuries… which should be MUCH more damning towards the Clippers than the Lakers.
The Clippers have been done for like 3 years now. The only year they felt like a legitimate championship contender was the bubble year. I have no idea why people keep bringing them up like they’re a serious threat to come out of the west. Some of their games last season with a fully healthy squad were embarrassing.
The media refuses to just give up on the Clippers for some reason
grizz first…lol
I love it. Give Hollinger credit for going outside the box.
I will say this—as I posted a few weeks ago, I think the Grizzlies are gonna be more than fine without Ja—I see them winning 15 games minimum without Ja. I see 15-10 at least. With Ja, this can be a 55-58 win team.
The Grizz starting five without Ja seems to be Smart-Bane-Kennard-Jackson Jr.-Adams. That is going to win a ton of games. If they go with Ziaire in the starting 5 who has been impressive in preseason, Luke and DRose make for a really fun bench pair. The Grizzlies are gonna be great. They’re also younger than most of the top West teams so health should be less of a red flag, although it isn’t a non-issue…Jackson/Smart/Adams are guys to watch on that front. If healthy the Grizz are a big problem.
There is no team that’s proven they can shake off controversy in the regular season better than Memphis. Jenkins has them ready to play.
How the hell are the Kings nowhere in that list? They were 3rd seed last season (even briefly taking 2nd)
He had them 11 in a separate post.
A lot of these older teams with stars (Suns, Lakers, Clippers, Warriors) have guys who have injury concerns, and there’s a good chance one or more of those stars end up missing 25 or more games, so I get the concern putting one of them as the 1 seed.
The Grizzlies’ star is 100%, no speculation, without a doubt, missing 25 games, yet they’re the best team? It’s impossible to predict injuries and how they will affect teams, so putting the team who’s best player is the only one that is certain to miss a large chunk of the season is wild to me.
Isn’t that the same record the lakers had last year with Russ , no role players and both bron and AD being injured throughout the year? Come on now
Wolves at third is hilarious
It’s about time the grizzlies got their due, I am so tired of the California teams winning every year. It gets boring, grizzlies are better than any California team. The only reason the Lakers won last year was because we were without Stephen Adams and the loss of Ja Morant did not help either. But we can do it withoutJA It’s just gonna be harder but he’ll be back in time for playoffs. We are always getting slammed by the haters!
People forget Bane played most of last season with a fucked up toe and was still awesome. He’ll be an All-Star this year.
Is he expecting Jaren to become a top 10 player? there’s no other reason to put Grizzlies that high.
the marcus smart effect
We finished 2 games behind the Nuggets despite having all starters missing significant time other than Dillon. Adams(40) Bane(24) Ja(21) JJJ(19). Memphis players should be better as most of them have yet to hit their prime
They’ve been #2 the past 2 seasons…Ja Morant has missed an average of 23 games both seasons. There IS reason to put them that high.