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Cake day: October 19th, 2023

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  • I wouldn’t be surprised if the Warriors are a play-in team, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up in a tough WCF series.

    Their starting five is, I believe, negative on the year - but was the best unit in the league last year. So clearly if they get it together, the team could be really, really good, and much better than they’ve been so far.

    But I also wouldn’t be surprised if Klay struggled to get over the mental hump of not being the same dude he was five years ago, and the last thing I want to do is bet on Wiggins being consistent. Meanwhile, while Kerr’s faith in his players is a strength, I wonder if he has a blind spot towards his guys’ struggles and is going to give them too much rope.


  • Maybe last year, but man, Jokic has spent the last three years making an argument that he’s the best offensive player in league history.

    And, I mean, you want to talk about how insane KD’s efficiency was last year? It was INSANE. .677, are you kidding me?*

    But Jokic’s was .701.

    (*when a player has their most half-a-season by far, one has to consider the possibility that it’s just a fluke and he wouldn’t have kept it up if he had played the whole year. Of course, the first place I would have expected regression was in his 3pt%, which is almost as insane this year … so maybe he could have kept it going!)

    So while it’s certain that KD would have been in the discussion last year, I don’t think it’s at all clear he would have won it. And the prior two season are a bit more of a stretch, although, again, I would have expected top-five finishes if he kept that up, and, honestly, at that point, who can really say? He’s certainly in the discussion.







  • Antwan Jamison has a legacy?

    Jamison wasn’t that good. He was the epitome of the guy who scored a lot of points because he was on bad teams who needed someone to take those shots. He didn’t do enough else well to turn him into a winning player while being an often-below-average efficiency high-volume scorer.

    He lost his hops pretty quickly and it was impressive the way he found a way to still be a reasonably effective scorer around the basket, and he probably would have been a lot better in today’s NBA. But he was a largely frustrating player to watch because the scoring wasn’t that good and there wasn’t a lot else there.





  • I love the idea that he would be up for the financial sacrifice this would involve because he was motivated by other things. These guys are all so rich, and it always kind of bums me out to see someone who already has more money than his children will ever be able to spend focus on squeezing out every available dollar.

    I don’t love the idea that we’d miss some seasons of potentially MVP-candidate-level play to see him play football, which is so much more destructive on your body than basketball. It’s not likely to be like Jordan playing baseball, when he could get back into basketball shape afterwards. The NFL is brutal.






  • The most important position is “guy who can create elite offense for himself and others.”

    It doesn’t matter what position they play. They can be a center (Jokic), a PG (Steph), a wing (KD, LeBron).

    Most title teams have a good center because it’s hard to win a title with a major weakness. Sooner or later, that weakness gets exposed.

    You could do what you did above with almost any position. Warriors aren’t winning the '22 title without Wiggins elevating his game. Bucks don’t win the title without Jrue. etc etc etc. The issue isn’t positions, it’s weaknesses. In most years, in today’s fantastically deep league, it’s simply really hard to win a title if you have a major weakness.


  • Trae is by far the best on offense (even with his shooting woes this season) but by far the worst on defense. He’s bad enough on defense to make the top spot a discussion, because if you’re not factoring that in he’s running away with things.

    I feel like Darius give you the best combination of quality on both sides of the ball - he’s the guy who takes nothing off the table. So the question is, how much do you value that vs putting up massive counting stats? I value that a lot, so he grabs the top spot.

    Trae comes in second because of his defensive liabilities counterbalance his incredible offense. I maintain a deep skepticism that someone with Trae’s playstyle can win a title, as well.

    Jalen third. LaMelo last, because, like Trae, what he does well he does fantastically but he also has a lot of holes in his game. However, he’s just not in the same class offensively: he’s never had a season above league average in efficiency, and, if you want to blame his teammates for that, well, it’s not like all these other guys have consistently had great teammates, either.

    Worth pointing out that LaMelo is by far the youngest of these guys so you’d pretty much expect him to be last. There’s plenty of reason to think he’ll rank higher among these four if you re-do this evaluation in three years.