- cross-posted to:
- politics@beehaw.org
- cross-posted to:
- politics@beehaw.org
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This is our Great Filter.
You have people all over the world watching their homes burn down or get swept away by rainfall and some guy in LA thinks to himself “hey, I think I can make some profit here”. Not just that, they will cause even more fires, more destruction and anguish and they know it. They just don’t care. In a healthy system a person like that would be immediately excluded from society as someone sick and dangerous. In our system we don’t have tools to do anything about it. The system will actually encourage millions of people to participate in this disgusting game, no one will face any consequences, the rich will get richer. The society as a whole is unable to deal with it. This is how it all will end.
To be clear, realizing that capitalism leads to catastrophe and abandoning capitalism is the great filter. (imo)
These so-called prediction matkets are just another symptom of capitalism gone off the rails.
Of course, that’s what I mean by “the system”. Capitalism evolved to shield bad people from responsibility. Thousands if not millions of people invested in Space X making Elon a trillionaire and they will never face any consequences for supporting a Nazi and his extremely harmful businesses. They are all hidden and protected by the system. If you want to protest any of it you have to do it in public and get ready for consequences. This imbalance was created on purpose. It’s easier for people to be part of the system than to oppose it.
Crackdown until someone teaches them how to do it then it becomes essential to a capitalist society.
Just the wildfire ones? Not the entire idea? 🤨
Of course the entire thing is an insidious cancer, but allowing people to bet on catastrophes they can potentially bring about or intensify themselves is on another level of dangerous.
“There’s also the heightened risk—according to state and local fire officials—that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful,” the letter continues. “By offering contracts on fires, prediction market sites run the risk of encouraging people to influence fires that have already started, creating additional concerns around public safety and insider trading.”
While we are not blind to the risks, removing these markets does not prevent a tragedy but makes the most accurate information less accessible to the people who need it most,” he wrote.
Can anyone explain to me what the actual fuck this dude is talking about here?
It’s libertarian shizzle about how you don’t need government services, like a forest service monitoring fire risk, if you have internet peoples betting on fire risk instead.
The libertarian lunacy is that because peoples money is in it, they will strive for the best judgement possible.
Libertarian police
I was shooting heroin and reading “The Fountainhead” in the front seat of my privately owned police cruiser when a call came in. I put a quarter in the radio to activate it. It was the chief.
“Bad news, detective. We got a situation.”
“What? Is the mayor trying to ban trans fats again?”
“Worse. Somebody just stole four hundred and forty-seven million dollars’ worth of bitcoins.”
The heroin needle practically fell out of my arm. “What kind of monster would do something like that? Bitcoins are the ultimate currency: virtual, anonymous, stateless. They represent true economic freedom, not subject to arbitrary manipulation by any government. Do we have any leads?”
“Not yet. But mark my words: we’re going to figure out who did this and we’re going to take them down … provided someone pays us a fair market rate to do so.”
“Easy, chief,” I said. “Any rate the market offers is, by definition, fair.”
He laughed. “That’s why you’re the best I got, Lisowski. Now you get out there and find those bitcoins.”
“Don’t worry,” I said. “I’m on it.”
I put a quarter in the siren. Ten minutes later, I was on the scene. It was a normal office building, strangled on all sides by public sidewalks. I hopped over them and went inside.
“Home Depot™ Presents the Police!®” I said, flashing my badge and my gun and a small picture of Ron Paul. “Nobody move unless you want to!” They didn’t.
“Now, which one of you punks is going to pay me to investigate this crime?” No one spoke up.
“Come on,” I said. “Don’t you all understand that the protection of private property is the foundation of all personal liberty?”
It didn’t seem like they did.
“Seriously, guys. Without a strong economic motivator, I’m just going to stand here and not solve this case. Cash is fine, but I prefer being paid in gold bullion or autographed Penn Jillette posters.”
Nothing. These people were stonewalling me. It almost seemed like they didn’t care that a fortune in computer money invented to buy drugs was missing.
I figured I could wait them out. I lit several cigarettes indoors. A pregnant lady coughed, and I told her that secondhand smoke is a myth. Just then, a man in glasses made a break for it.
“Subway™ Eat Fresh and Freeze, Scumbag!®” I yelled.
Too late. He was already out the front door. I went after him.
“Stop right there!” I yelled as I ran. He was faster than me because I always try to avoid stepping on public sidewalks. Our country needs a private-sidewalk voucher system, but, thanks to the incestuous interplay between our corrupt federal government and the public-sidewalk lobby, it will never happen.
I was losing him. “Listen, I’ll pay you to stop!” I yelled. “What would you consider an appropriate price point for stopping? I’ll offer you a thirteenth of an ounce of gold and a gently worn ‘Bob Barr ‘08’ extra-large long-sleeved men’s T-shirt!”
He turned. In his hand was a revolver that the Constitution said he had every right to own. He fired at me and missed. I pulled my own gun, put a quarter in it, and fired back. The bullet lodged in a U.S.P.S. mailbox less than a foot from his head. I shot the mailbox again, on purpose.
“All right, all right!” the man yelled, throwing down his weapon. “I give up, cop! I confess: I took the bitcoins.”
“Why’d you do it?” I asked, as I slapped a pair of Oikos™ Greek Yogurt Presents Handcuffs® on the guy.
“Because I was afraid.”
“Afraid?”
“Afraid of an economic future free from the pernicious meddling of central bankers,” he said. “I’m a central banker.”
I wanted to coldcock the guy. Years ago, a central banker killed my partner. Instead, I shook my head.
“Let this be a message to all your central-banker friends out on the street,” I said. “No matter how many bitcoins you steal, you’ll never take away the dream of an open society based on the principles of personal and economic freedom.”
He nodded, because he knew I was right. Then he swiped his credit card to pay me.
That’s criminally insane.
Capitalists are weird as hell. They can’t comprehend any non-financial motivation?
They’re trying to say that the guess of the “prediction market” will give early warning to evacuate.
It’s been one of their “We’re not gambling” defenses but applying it to wildfires really highlights how bonkers it is.
This is what I thought but I was hoping that was way too stupid to be real.
It intentionally ignores the very real scenario where someone
places a betpredicts that a fire will start and then goes out and starts the fire towin that bethave a correct prediction.
That’s some Ankh-Morpork shit right there.
How about a crackdown on politicians lining their pockets with insider trading?
- Let’s do something about this very specific, immediate danger!
- How about something completely different that doesn’t solve this problem but is also way more difficult to achieve?
Regular, controlled burnings should be done to prevent these massive wildfires.
Especially now that the climate has made them worse.
