- cross-posted to:
- technology@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- technology@lemmy.world
Market debut of AI company behind Claude chatbot will be one of largest in US history, a test of its financial viability
Anthropic has publicly filed for a stock market listing, one of the largest debuts in history. The company’s float on the US market is likely to be a high-water mark in the multitrillion-dollar AI boom and a test of its financial viability.
Analysts and investors have valued the San Francisco-based company, founded in 2021, at more than $1.5tn. The company, which will will list under the symbol ANT, confidentially filed with US financial regulators for an initial public offering in June.
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How did they justify that valuation? All i could find in the article is what they EXPECT AI to do and they have a “rapidly growing customer base”?
Nothing about how they plan on providing $1.5t of value, just “its AI its gonna cure cancer do you wanna get left behind?!?”
Look up project Stargate, follow the money, it wont take much digging to figure out the why and the who.
Yes keep inflating that bubble
The headlines have finally started turning and calling it what it is: a bubble economy about to burst.
They’ve finally started saying “these companies are overvalued with no real strategy or profitability, and the receipts are about to come do.”
So what do the tech companies do in response? “Quick! Pump and dump! Pump and dump!”
It’s a fucking ponzi scheme. How have we not learned this yet as a society?
I am gonna list me. 2.8 trillion.
Their revenue in the first half of the year was 16.3 billion. That is a big increase over the 1.2 billion over the same period last year, but assuming that continues, then their annual revenue is only 32.6 billion. That is revenue. Not profit. They actually still operate at a loss, 693 million in the same period this year. That is a major improvement over the 2.1 billion dollar operating loss from the same period the year before. The trend line is going up. But the fact of the matter is that they are still very much operating in the red and their current investors are not getting and payoff for their investment until they are profitable.
They cannot generate a profit without either cutting on hardware and infrastructure investment, making their models more compute efficient/limiting the use of less efficient models, or increasing token prices. They will definitely not do either of the first two things, so prices are going to spike as soon as they go public so they can attract more investors. That is my prediction. The current investors will also sell out their shares immediately and dump the stock price screwing over all of the early adopters. Mark my words.
Gets even murkier when you look at how OpenAI did guarantee a certain % to pre-IPO investors.
These cretins all practiced their bullshittery in the crypto space and are now shoving it down the market’s throat via “real” IPOs
I don’t think a price spike will work either, the market has already priced LLMs at their cap, any higher and it’s cheaper to just hire more humans.
The problem with throwing in so hard with AI tools and using it to replace human labor is that when you inevitably decide that human labor is the cheaper option in the long term, it takes a lot of time and effort to find, and train and rebuild knowledge and specific skill. In the meantime, you are still relying on AI to fill the gaps. They were able to drop people fast and hard. They won’t be able to do the same with AI becuase people require more time to source and acclimate.
That means that, over the short term at least, these AI companies have a lot of industry by the balls. If they want to increase prices, even if that is the straw that breaks the camels back and gets them to start turning back to human labor, they are still going to pay those higher prices until they can.
That is not a recipe for a healthy long term business strategy for the AI companies. That will almost certianly lose them revenue in the long run, even with higher pricing. But if your investors are getting desperate for any return at all on their investment, a good solid pump and dump strategy makes that happen. They bail out before the other foot drops, collect their ill-gotten winnings, and walk away richer while the new shareholders eat shit when the price tanks.
The AI companies know this is a bubble just like everyone else. But bubbles are profitable to a select few if they do it right and that is all they ultimately care about. When the bubble pops, we’ll still have AI companies, but the market will settle somewhere far more reasonable and the tools will be expensive and niche and useful for special cases only. No AI company is trying to get to that point, it’s the just inevitable outcome. What they are trying to do is maximize their big payout, all else be damned.
I get it. I found an old rock in a ditch that has a unique shape that I like. I value it at around 150 million dollars. BOOM! Economy solved!
Yuck
Shit’s gonna pump then dump like you’ve never seen before.
Investors want their Return Of Investment. If they can’t get it via token prices, they’ll need to sell their shares.
Sooner or later a Greater Depression will come. Hopefully I will have sold my old PC, ditched my debt, and saved up enough Euros or Yuan to buy myself some Blackwell GPUs.
AI is the future. Anthropic is a dinosaur, doomed to become a historical curiosity.
I really don’t get the “AI is the future” thing. Future of what? Any of the things it’s capable of doing I would rather do myself, and the things it’s not capable of doing are the things I consider most valuable.
My future, at the very least. It has allowed me to do things that were simply outside my ability to feasibly do. I certainly can’t write programs or make art. My local AI restored some game DLC into working order, doing the archaeology and rewiring.
You are welcome to be oldschool. Your cohort are simply taking an path that will look increasingly strange to future generations.
Ah video games, yes I’m told those are popular. Admittedly I don’t interact with many of the things that AI is good at, other than programming. And it’s competency as a programmer is why I’m getting out of the field. Probably go be an electrician again.
It can make music , create art, and write but why would I want it? It can program but what software do I need that is so complex I need an AI to make it? 3 line sh scripts for text processing are not hard.
It can do theoretical math, but I’m not a theoretical mathematician.
It can answer emails but… Why? That’s creepy no? And once again it’s trivial to respond to correspondence.
All of the things it could replace are easier/cheaper to do by hand, and everything else is an extremely specific business case that I don’t have.
I hazard a guess that I am not alone in this case.
We have the best depressions over here. Depressions like you’ve never seen.
Economics degrees are astrology for white men. This only reinforces that point.
Astrology has more reality than economics does. At least the movements and positions of the planets is something real.
People used to navigate by it, plant and harvest by it, nomads would migrate by the movements of the stars.
Economics is just… “How much confirmation bias can we use to rationalize conclusions we’ve already determined in advance, in order to convince governments and investors to give us money that doesn’t even exist?” and “How can we frame these numbers to keep people from rioting?”
You’re confusing astrology and astronomy.
No, astronomy is the modern science of measuring and studying outer space. It grew out of astrology in the same way that the modern science of chemistry grew out of alchemy.
At least the movements and positions of the planets is something real.
Yes but being sad because mercury is in gatorade or whatever isn’t “real”, it’s literally prescribed to you by someone who says that when planets do X then your mood or success in whatever endeavors must be Y and Z
If the only thing you’ve heard about astrology is the “newspaper horoscopes” that attempt to be prescriptive in that way, then I could see having that opinion.
I would also argue that people who read those horoscopes and take them seriously, also do not understand astrology.
My point is that “Mercury in retrograde” is a real phenomenon, unlike “self-regulating market” or “rational/ethical consumer,” or any of the other things economists use to try to justify deregulation, austerity, and “infinite growth.”
My argument isn’t that Mercury retrograde has any effect on your mood. That’s a claim I didn’t make. But from the perspective of earth, there are times when Mercury appears to reverse its course. The other planets do it too. Hence, it is “more real than economics.”
As someone with an economics-heavy business degree, I have said this since my intro to economics course. The fact that there are “schools”, and that some mainstream theories last only for years, not even decades, and that all governments who come in will “try” a “recipe” to see what works, is telling enough. The “laws” of economics are “kinda”, “usually”, “generally”, and above all “conditional”. There are a few things that are almost laws, like the fact that humanity is driven by the seven cardinal sins of which most can be translated into economic characteristics, and cycles (which we are hell bent in forgetting every time we are at a crest).
I’m thermodynamic’s bitch. That shit is. You can’t cheat them laws.
The fact that the seven cardinal sins have officially been codified as a principle of economics is… telling…
What are the primary drivers of humanity? Lust, greed, envy, gluttony, sloth, wrath, and pride.
“Now how can we exploit that to extract more profit” is a question only a sociopath would ask. It explains so much about industry today though, especially marketing and yes, social media.
I’m stealing this.
It would be so much more valuable as a social science/philosophy. Quantitative economics ruined the field
And gambling, let’s not forget the casinos and lottery raffles
The kind of gambling where the biggest losers are the ones who are not participating, and they keep whining that the winners should give them something too.
Ah yes, the self acclaimed winner in the wild.
Big toes youve got there, winning!
I’m doing quite ok, actually. Most probably better than 99% of the people commenting here in just about every way possible.
I’m not really a gambling man, though.
Mannnn this is going to be one hell of a test
Company that has lost $125,000,000,000 in 6 years think it’s worth $1,500,000,000,000.
What a time to be alive.
Yeah, how else would they pay off that $125 trillion, without the imaginary $150 trillion that they’re begging for.
Cart before the horse? Maybe. Unconventional? They prefer the term “innovative”…
I’m more profitable than Anthropic, check please
Please, sir, I would like a billion dollars.
The big companies have to IPO to transfer all this investor debt to mutual funds and retirement funds before it goes crash. Can’t be them on the hook for this when it pops.
Exactly.
We should have let the market crash years ago, so we could begin building something more sustainable in its place.
Instead, it’s what, tripled in size more or less? The fall is only going to be that much harder as a result…
Luckily S&P is blocking some of these shenanigans by not allowing inclusion into the S&P500 for companies that are not profitable even if they become publicly listed. This includes all of the AI only companies.
Because so many large investment funds have dumped their money in these AI companies they will still take down the entire stock market when they go bust. There is so much money which does not exist inside of the bubble.
Do you have any articles or more information on the S&P blocking them?
article: The S&P 500 won’t bend its rules to let SpaceX in early
“In a Thursday news release, the index provider announced it was holding firm on all three contested criteria — the one-year waiting period before new listings can qualify, the requirement for demonstrated profitability, and minimum public float thresholds — regardless of how large a company may be. ‘Exceptions to the financial viability, seasoning, and IWF requirements should not be granted solely based on market capitalization,’ the company said. The decision preserves existing methodology without alteration.”
I checked vanguard when spacex floated and they had a good explainer. I didn’t dig deep enough to find it on the S&P documentation, but in this article under 3 things to consider, it mentions S&P requires a company to be profitable in its recent quarter or the sum of its previous 4 quarters https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/staying-grounded-moonshot-ipos.html
And if the debt is in the retirement funds, it’s a guarantee that the government will bail it out because they’re holding old people hostage. Yuck.
Fed can’t bailout shit with inflation running as hot as it already is (they’re already fudging the numbers to keep Social Security payments down). Dumping the bag onto retirement accounts (mutual funds, ETFs, etc.) is the bailout.
They can’t, but they will anyway!
Let the retirement funds crash. Maybe it’ll finally teach them not to trust crime-riddled, unregulated Wall Street with their futures.
They will get a nice bailout from whatever Democrat or Republican is in charge.
Just pile it on the backs of the damn lazy youths amiright
Yeah. They haven’t contributed nearly as much as my old ass. What gives them the right?!
Coming out here all like “oh I just want what you had” and “why are things worse” and shit like “social security will be insolvent for me” like a bunch of whining hippies.
… fuck that lol.
This is going to be a problem when all of our 401ks buy into it and we all end up being the bagholders
I’ve been trying to move my retirement accounts into funds that are better insulated from an AI bubble pop, but it’s challenging. I mainly moved into funds based on international stocks and low- to mid-cap stocks. The high-cap stock funds are almost entirely AI-fueled companies right now. They’re making crazy returns, but I just don’t trust them.
Most etfs that focus on dividend yields have very little AI exposure because AI companies don’t make enough money and aren’t mature enough to issue dividends.
Those aren’t also going to get you an early retirement so you could start leeching off the working class sooner, dividend paying companies don’t usually grow much.
There are sharia indexes that don’t contain the same mixture of top stocks. I think SpaceX is excluded from that one because of the defense contracting stuff they do.
