• vxx@lemmy.world
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    7 days ago

    Using bonds to blackmail the European Union? I hope they will be barred from buying bonds for all eternity.

  • Kyrgizion@lemmy.world
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    7 days ago

    Again: do it. The sooner we can cast off the yoke of the Middle East’s hold on our power generation via oil, the better. Things like this can only accellerate the process: good. Keep it up and accellerate even more.

      • Kyrgizion@lemmy.world
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        7 days ago

        True, but I’m only talking about specifically cutting ties with the M…E (gradually) and transitioning to a green energy model ASAP, not about the wider political implications.

        • ShinkanTrain@lemmy.ml
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          7 days ago

          Only if you’re not making things worse on purpose in the hopes that they’ll get better later

        • TranscendentalEmpire@lemm.ee
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          7 days ago

          I mean, it kinda depends on what you think will make things better… Accelerationist ideology is mostly only effective for fascist. Fascism gains power by blaming current problems on the ineffectiveness of parliamentary governments, promising to provide stability with the use of a strong leader.

          The left on the other hand relies on ideas like mutual cooperation and mutual aid, things that require more political and structural organization to bear fruit.

          In post industrialized nations, it’s hard to imagine why things would have to regress in order to eventually progress from the current status quo.

          • Grandwolf319@sh.itjust.works
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            7 days ago

            So how about something like the French Revolution that gave us the modern napoleonic code and served as a basis for secular government?

            • TranscendentalEmpire@lemm.ee
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              7 days ago

              Well first, I think it depends on your perspective. The French revolution and the 1rst Republic were overthrown by Napoleon. While Napoleon was one of the more liberal dictators, he was still an agent of some pretty terrible imperialism.

              Secondly, there’s a reason why I specified post industrial societies. The most successful leftist governments had the advantage of being able to industrialize their nations. Being able to increase the power of a centralized government while simultaneously improving the quality of life of its citizens is one of the more powerful carrots in the revolutionary arsenal.

              • Grandwolf319@sh.itjust.works
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                7 days ago

                Oh so your basically saying revolution style changes are kind of not possible in an industrialized society?

                Hmmm, I disagree but that’s a fair point.

                • TranscendentalEmpire@lemm.ee
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                  7 days ago

                  Not necessarily, just that post industrialized nations tend to swing harder right when people begin to lose faith in the democratic process.

                  I think part of that is due to the lack of strong mutual aid groups and worker organizations that industrialization creates as a byproduct.

                  If we look at revolutionary movements in the 20th century for the most part the industrialized nations were the ones who were overtaken by fascism, while unindustrialized countries like Russia and China transitioned to socialism.

                  It was one of the wildcards that early socialist didn’t really forsee, which is why everyone was so surprised that the first revolution to succeed was in Russia instead of Germany.

      • Chainweasel@lemmy.world
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        7 days ago

        I know that no one is actually serious when they say this, but I think all it would take would be one.
        If we just drag Bezos or Musk out in the streets and have an actual barbecue with them I feel like the rest would start to support a wealth tax pretty fucking quickly.

        • ChicoSuave@lemmy.world
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          7 days ago

          The rich would use the media to create a zombie style fear of the average person and sow paranoia to rouse security systems like police and national guard to action. They would lock down everyone rather than suffer losing one person.

          Keep in mind that eating just one rich isn’t as scary as the promise of eating more. The rich will use their their considerable resources, and cooperate, to stop them from succumbing to populist hunger.

    • ghostdoggtv@lemmy.world
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      7 days ago

      Money is not true value, currency is a placeholder for true value that is used to facilitate trade. Rich people are worth less than the profits they extract from coordinating labor. But they extract enough to think they’re still better than those they exploit.

  • Flying Squid@lemmy.world
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    7 days ago

    We’ll see if Saudi Arabia’s attempt to control the West works this time. They sure do a good job with the U.S. despite being behind 9/11.

  • Got_Bent@lemmy.world
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    7 days ago

    Sell to whom? Do Euro bonds work differently than in the US?

    You can sell bonds in the US and it’s only slightly different from selling a stock. The bond changes hands, but the government debt and interest payments remain static. (The buyer and seller get to deal with premium/discounts and accrued interest, but that has zero effect on the underlying debt from the issuing government)

    I don’t understand why this would be a bad thing for them to sell.

    • Tinidril@midwest.social
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      7 days ago

      Europe is selling new bonds all the time, and the price buyers will be willing to pay for them will fall.

      • sunzu@kbin.run
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        7 days ago

        I don’t see how KSA selling their bonds on secondary market will lower the “price” of new issue.

        • iopq@lemmy.world
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          7 days ago

          Why would you buy the new issue that yields like crap when the older bonds that got dumped are much cheaper?

          The price of the bond and the yield are in an inverse relation. In other words, by dumping the bonds you increase their yield. Europe would be forced to pay a higher yield on new issues

          • Got_Bent@lemmy.world
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            7 days ago

            I mentioned premium/discount in my comment. When you sell a bond on the secondary market, the price goes up or down to match prevailing interest rates. It should have no effect on new issue prices.

            I am simplifying quite a bit here, but the gist is sufficient unless European bonds work differently which was my original question.

            • iopq@lemmy.world
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              7 days ago

              The prevailing interest rates is what is affected when a large holder dumps their bonds, it increases the market interest rates

            • notabot@lemm.ee
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              7 days ago

              The price moves with supply and demand on the secondary market. Normally, yes, that’ll tend to vary to balance yield with the prevailing interest rates, however, the threat seems to be to dump bonds onto the secondary market, presumably without a minimum price. The glut would mean buyers could purchase them below that balance price, giving them a better yield. This would have (at least) two knock on effects, firstly it would make it harder for governments yo raise funds through bond issues as they’d effectively be competing with the cheaper ‘dumped’ bonds and so would need to offer an equivalently high yield, and secondly may allow ‘undesirable’ governments or groups to amass significant amounts of European debt, which potentially gives them more political leverage than European governments might like.

              • sunzu@kbin.run
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                7 days ago

                It’s not clear how much European debt Saudi Arabia holds, but its central bank’s net foreign currency reserves stand at $445bn. Saudi Arabia holds $135.9bn in US treasuries, placing it 17th among investors in the US bonds.

                Best info on their holdings I could pull from fake news coverage. I am going to assume they hold less EU than US. So lets say 130billion.

                European sovereign bond issuance continues above pre-pandemic levels: in 2021, European sovereign bond issuance, including issuance from EU Member States, the UK and the European Commission, accumulated EUR 3362.3 bn in proceeds,

                Note that’s with a 3.3T

                I am not a bond trader so I am not sure how big of impact Saudi sell off would cause but for them to drive the price, they would be taking big losses on top of what is likely an underwater position.

                • notabot@lemm.ee
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                  7 days ago

                  They may well be looking at how much the EU holds in Saudi assets, seeing those at potential risk of being seized and deciding tge write-down on dumping the bonds would be worth it. Long term, I don’t think it would have an effect on prices, but short term it may well do, depending on how concentrated their holdings are.

                  From what I can see, normal trading volume in bonds is about 500% per year, or about 2% per day assuming 250 trading days per year. If the 130bn you mention is spread across all government bonds across the EU then it accounts for about 4% of the total, or about two days of normal trade. Dump all of that in one go and it’d definitely have a short term effect. If their holdings are more concentrated they could have an even bigger effect on the bonds they hold.

                  Bonds tend to be issued on a regular basis, so even a short term drop in price could be timed to affect an auction. That has the twin effect of reducing the amount the government in question raises, and also tying them into effectively higher interest rates, potentially for decades to come.

                  I’m no expert trader either, so I could be barking up the wrong tree, but I assume that they would have a clear expectation of the results before making that threat, and I can’t really see any other effects it could be expected to have.

              • Got_Bent@lemmy.world
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                7 days ago

                A sensible response. Thank you. I couldn’t wrap my head around how this would affect the market, but yeah if the volume is big enough and the price is low enough it could muck things up.

            • sunzu@kbin.run
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              7 days ago

              It should have no effect on new issue prices.

              That is my understanding, short of KSA flooding secondary market to where nobody shows up at the auction but I doubt they got enough bonds to do this or that they would sell them in such manner anyway.

  • OBJECTION!@lemmy.ml
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    7 days ago

    If the Saudis disinvested from the dollar and started selling oil in yuan, it would severely weaken US soft power around the world. At the same time, seizing the assets would remove a bargaining chip from potential peace talks. And those assets likely wouldn’t be enough for Ukraine to win anyway.

    Turns out when you steal other countries’ assets (as with Venezuela), other countries stop trusting you with their money and start trusting other countries (like China) with it instead. If they wanna speedrun losing a second cold war, that’s the way to go.

    • Poach@lemmy.world
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      7 days ago

      Lol no one is trusting China and their heavily manipulated currency

        • Num10ck@lemmy.world
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          7 days ago

          the global market has decided that your whataboutisms are wrong. theres no currency on earth that is more reliable than the USD. it’s FAR from perfect to be fair, but it sets the bar.

          when there is a stablecoin that is worth trillions of dollars, things might change.

          • DragonTypeWyvern@midwest.social
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            7 days ago

            Ok buddy.

            Just FYI? It’s not a whataboutism when you’re already directly comparing two things. That’s just how comparisons work.