Many of those aren’t real votes but “protest” support. Very dumb imo. They’re hoping its a wakeup to the other parties but it really just emboldens the afd.
Please look at the US and what’s happening here right now.
A significant portion of Trump’s voters in 2016 were protest anti-establishment voters and they’ve been converted into full on Fascist voters in the 8 years since then.
Nah I don’t buy it. Nazis voting for nazis know what they are doing. AfDs plan is clear, like project 2025 was and their voters like what they see and should be treated and handled accordingly.
Are they dumber than the parties that didn’t get the message?
Is the proper response: Well shit.
Did you not realize that they performed incredibly well in the elections? Social media is how they will overthrow the last remaining democracies. France, UK and Canada are next. All the young folks are increasingly more conservative and within 2-6 years, it’s going to be game over.
We really should stop using the term “conservative” for what the self proclaimed “conservative” parties are doing. Because they don’t conserve anything. They do the exact opposite. They exploit and destroy.
I don’t disagree, but when one part of society uses word A and the other part uses word B that would only further increase polarization, which already is a serious problem. I think it’d be better it we continue using the name they use for themselves, but point out what a weird name it is for them. So we could tell them for example that we find it strange they consider themselves “conservative” parties because they don’t conserve anything. They do the exact opposite. They exploit and destroy.
The problem is that more simple minded people who are actually conservative, as they want to conserve society as it is, will easily fall for the propaganda and vote for a party that is out to destroy what they want to conserve.
The self proclaimed standing of a party is part of its propaganda. Unfortunately the media are complicit with the parties on perpetuating their propaganda, by calling parties by their chosen adjectives, rather than by what would be more fitting. Conservatives should rather be called “Destructives”, and in many countries, “Social Democrats” are rather Neoliberals, for they have long sold out social democracy to the highest bidder and now follow an extremist free market ideology, their only remaining difference to the “Conservatives” being not wanting to return to societal norms from 60 years ago.
Populist intentionally choose words that attract potential voters, they will continue to do that. But calling them out for not being real conservatives because they act different is definitely helpful.
Not sure why you’re getting downvoted, maybe people just don’t like to hear it. You’re not wrong.
To add, these people generally have more kids, and raise them to be conservative. It’s depressing. It might take some severe hardship on people to shift left again? Not sure what that is, hopefully not another world War.
In phone polls 4 years before the next election…
Dont get me wrong, this sucks, but its not what the germans actually voted for.
But they already performed very well in the last election.
Still shows you something you can’t see by asking your neighbours, colleagues and family. But I agree it doesn’t matter in a real way.
Plus two percent, a difference of one percent to second place and an error margin of two point five percent. Congrats.
Besides that, I really start to hate these reports. Weekly updates on the Sonntagsfrage are utterly lacking substance, fearmongering (to left leaning people) and reassurance (to AfD voters). Everything we do not need.
Also, the heads of most of the polling institutes are openly right leaning.
Should the left not be worried?
About a election in 4 years? Not really. At least not yet. This isn‘t news worthy in my opinion because it doesn‘t tell you anything about what the country will look like in 4 years.
If the current government is even willing and able to serve their term to its end (the previous one didn’t), and actually improve the situation enough so people stop running after some rat catchers with a simple lie as the supposed solution.
But the Left and Greens are in opposition — this is a chance. Hopefully they are able to mobilise as well in the coming years.
Where did I say that? How the fuck do you come up with that being the conclusion of my comment?
Calm down, you could have just said “yes the left should be worried but no need to panic” and all would be well.
I’m not calming down. This dumb shit happens just far too often lately. I have no idea, why people insinuate things others never said and burn that strawman down, but I’m getting too tired and more and more pissed off by it, to the point where I wonder if it’s even worth it or I should rather stop discussing.
Shit’s annoying AF.
You should stop discussing because what you call a straw man is a perfectly reasonable interpretation of your comment. If you don’t want it to be open to interpretation, you should be more clear, rather than get mad at people taking one of the reasonable interpretations. An additional sentence at the end of that comment like “That said, the left should be worried.” would likely have been enough.
About as reasonable an interpretation as asking you if you mean humans shouldn’t ever feel emotions by saying “Calm down”.
I really start to hate these reports. Weekly updates on the Sonntagsfrage are utterly lacking substance, fearmongering (to left leaning people) and reassurance (to AfD voters). Everything we do not need.
There?
So in your stupid brain “Not A” is automatically and without any alternatives to equivocate with “the utterly illogical opposite to A”?
How on earth is “push the breaks on fearmongering” equal to “Na, don’t worry”???
- Fear mongering is making people worried.
- You are against this report for doing this to leftists, hence you are against making leftist people worried.
?
You can be against news fearmongering a certain group and also believe the fear this group has is valid. In this case, the leftist could for example be already worried by the actual situation and not because of the fearmongering.
No for fucks sake. Fearmongering is the irrational exaggeration of a worrisome situation to a degree that incites fear (hence the term fearmongering) and panic.
So what irrational fears are promoted about the AdF getting into power and achieving greater public support?
Or is it irrational to think the most popular party in Germany could ever win?
Very confusing, I’m so stupid after all.
Bitte achte auf deine Ausdrucksweise, solche Gossensprache wollen wir hier nicht.
For what‘s worth it doesn‘t actually matter what potential voters would vote for each and every week when the next election is almost 4 years away. If anything, bold headlines like these only act as a self fulfilling prophecy and are blatant populism. Even a good government can‘t be super popular every single week and the sooner people realize that, the better for democracy. Though I won‘t hold my breath.
Everybody in Germany. Please talk to family members that you don’t talk to about how this is dangerous to you. I know I have these in my family that I should invest in instead of always talking to the closest ones. Also make sure to beat them with genuine questions that break open their confidence in the reasoning with the socratic way (epistemology)
- What? Belief.
- Why? Reason
- How? Method for Proof
Or
- Identify Persuasion
- Question “What is it actually”, definition –In between ask for scale 1-10 how confident into the topic are you and importance queries
- Why do you believe that?
- How could one determine whether this is really true? –In between the scale and importance queries
- Best argument for and strongest argument against?
- Reflect, i.e. repeat what has been said in your own words eighthly
It’s not about being well versed in the topic of conversation But good questions
Totally. Good one is showing genuinely curiosity on problems we face. For example, what would be AfD solution for tenant issues and protections? The USA can be also a good one. What I mean is the endorsement from Elon Musk for the AfD and AfDs endorsement of Trumps, whom they dislike as well. Encouraging them to catch up with relatives from the USA and how they’re doing with the current republican regime.
With some however it’s too cumbersome or fruitless to argue and discuss in my opinion. So I stick to calling out the lack of serious or sensible solutions and stirred up hatred. There are enough cognitive dissonance, economy incorrect conclusions to call out… Basically some Fascists will only waste your time - good YT Video.
This!
The best strategy is to engage in genuine conversations.
Most people just label the unknowledgable as stupid and attempt to desperately convince them with a bombardment of facts and counter-arguments. Even worse is just calling them “Nazi” and leave it at that. This is futile with some people who have gone down too deep into the hate-train of social media. They will immediately mentally blockade what you’re saying and the cycle continues.
It’s way more effective to get into a friendly conversation and actually engage with what they are saying. Listen. Ask questions. Listen. Ask questions. Understand why they believe what they believe. Be open to their arguments, however rediculous you might find them.
The most important thing you need to realize that it’s not their fault and they are not stupid! They are just the output of their environment. Everyone has emotions. And everyone deals with them differently. Everyone has their environment. And everyone sources their information from that environment. Everyone has parts of their lives where they are misinformed or less educated than an expert in the field. You too! Consequently, the way to change someone’s belief is to change their environment while understanding their emotional basis.
Take care of the nazi problem before they take care of you. You already know how that works. Stop allowing them to broadcast nazi propaganda as if it was news.
So CDU is just AfD in disguise…
David Kriesel is amazing! Didn’t know about this. Very useful.
Yes, he’s great data scientist. He has more stuff on his webpage, e.g. bias analysis of the different polling institutes, be sure to check it out if you like!
They just asked 1502 people by phone.
That’s how statistics works. You take a sample and interpret the reality based on that sample. When you get a blood exam, you don’t need to check all the blood, you take a sample and based on that get a result.
Yes. That’s a usual number for representative polling. Sometimes, they ask 1.000, sometimes 2.000. The other German polling institutes are doing the same.
So it is a poll of people who answer phone numbers they don’t recognize.
You can of course criticize that, but Forsa exists since 1984 and they are not known for publishing unrealistic polls. The polls are not the problem here. The people turning off their brains and voting for the far right are the problem.
I did Nazi that coming.
Germany: well, okay, listen, it’s not working out for America, and it didn’t work out for us that one time, but they promised it’ll be different for us. What’s a few civil liberties and social safety nets if it means we get to
extract slave labor from immigrantsput immigrants in prison for life for the crime of existing?What does Bundesreg under Green and SPD mean? Or asked differently… Why doesn’t FDP have that text?
Right know Scholz is still chancellor and the old government still in office. This only changes when Merz is voted into office and the new government formed. FDP is not part of the government anymore since the old coalition failed.
Germany, you’re supposed to be good guys this round.
Germany is the America of the EU, especially since Britain left
Ah 💩, here we go again
Can someone explain how powerful a party can be in Germany with a plurality but without a majority?
Short version is they cannot govern without a coalition partner, but they gain other rights in the parliament, such as filling important positions in the administration. When they reach 1/3 of the votes, so 33% they have a Sperrminorität, which means they can prevent changes in the constitution and also hinder new judges in the constitutional court.
Also 25% in an election would allow installing parliamentary inquiry commissions, which can be a decent way to obstruct the government by busying the bureaucracy and hogging media time.
Extra context: Sperrminorität translates to a blocking minority, as in you have enough votes to prevent a 2/3 majority vote.
This is post election. They didn’t have the majority during the elections, so while it is impressive, it doesn’t give them new political powers. Also, they require coalition partners, but nobody is willing to do that. If a coalition can be formed between (looking at the chart) Union, SPD, and Greens, that puts them at >50% giving them a majority to govern.
If the new coalition is formed and they don’t get their act together within the time of governance, the next elections could be fatal for democracy in Germany. Honestly, like in most other European countries facing threats to democracy, their current governments must take decisive and quick action to make more people happy. However, current governments are trying to play the nazi’s game, and they are predictably losing ground because that’s not a solution.
Major parties are playing identity politics, trying to be populistic, bundling nazi ideas as their own, or quite simply not uniting like for example the French left-wing parties did (however short-lived that was). They should be:
- decreasing the gap between the rich and everybody else
- improving EU and national sovereignty by promoting non-US products and services to stop the influx of US and Russian propaganda
- taking radical action to make lodging and life in general more affordable (more social housing, making multi-home ownership less attractive, regulating the market more, etc.)
- improving public transport to reduce car dependence to reduce air and noise pollution in cities, which also makes transport more affordable
- providing more education with paid educational leave to allow career switches
- reduce hurdles for creating small businesses and provide guidance for those willing to start businesses
- invest in technology that makes life easier and more comfortable (better internet to reduce trips to office and government offices in particular, subsidies and research into improved heating and heat retention to reduce electricity and gas bills, …)
and so so much more. A happy, educate populace is much less likely to be duped and and magnitudes less likely to vote against their own interests (like voting for lying politicians or nazis).
donno about Germany, but here in UK the current government is actually putting through unexpected changes, but its probably invisible to general public. news outlets are generally pro conservatives here
We’ll see about Germany. I think the last government tried to do stuff but one coalition “partner” cutting away at the coalition’s Achilles heel (the budget). The media reporting on Germany also seems to be quite conservative, so a bunch of the good stuff the coalition did was swept under the rug e.g for the first time in decades the German railway infrastructure didn’t get worse (it also didn’t get better, but at least it didn’t get worse).
The graphic that OP posted has the conservatives as the second most popular party, but they were the most popular one after the last elections. It’s the same party of Merkel, the same one that was in power for 15 years and didn’t improve the country during that entire time, thus planting the seeds for the nazis.
Up to 49%.
That entirely depends on the other parties.
As long as they have less than 50% the other parties could (in theory) band together against them and create a coalition government.
The problem arises when that coalition has to become more diverse. As you can imagine the populist right would rather work together with the far right than with the populist left, so the coalition becomes shaky, paralyzed because they cannot come to agreements. The common denominator will be so small that basically nothing gets done, and the oppositional party will profit from that.
Shaky coalition governments can lead to government breakups and snap elections which in combination with the resulting loss of trust and inability to do anything of the government will likely lead to an even stronger opposition and even more shaky governments or right out majority for the plurality party.
Also, the leader of the opposition usually chairs important committees like the Budget Committee, the opposition also gets important roles in the committees for Foreign Affairs, Internal Affairs and Defense. It also gets priority in debates, which is usually a good thing, since this works as a check and balance to hold government accountable, but when this role is in the hands of populists, they will certainly use it to further their own narrative.
As you can imagine the populist right would rather work together with the far right than with the populist left
Ah fuck it let’s give the Churches money to build apartments, then. They don’t believe in anything anyway so let’s just capture a vague sense of conservativeness.
