German media outlets Süddeutsche Zeitung, WDR, and NDR also cite the report, noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin appears intent on testing NATO’s Article 5 guarantees. The alliance’s mutual defence clause obliges member states to come to one another’s aid if attacked. The assessment suggests Putin may seek to challenge how seriously that commitment would be honoured.
Wouldn’t Russia have to suddenly produce a lot more young men who are still alive to invade any more countries?
If only they had an asset in the US who could provide those.
Men who are still alive
Oh no… Putin found Dunharrow. Being alive isn’t needed.
Why produce when you can kidnap and pressgang from Ukraine?
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No, it’d have to ensure France. Which means if they struck France could nuke Moscow. If. Anyone in Russia gave a shit, they’d slaughter Putin’s family now.
How else do you save those lives
I hope Putin dies before that. And in such a personal regime his dead and the consequent fight for power could lead to big changes in Russia.
So let’s hope Zelensky was right, and it’s sooner than later.
His replacement is going to have to do something big to legitimize their rule
Not surprised. The level of European alarm about the Russian threat being real has been greater than what could have been sustained without there being secret direct evidence.
Here’s hoping when he does that and immediately starts to lose, he doesn’t decide to end the world.
Based on intel from my MI buddies, most of Putin’s nukes are probably nonfunctional. They tried to test one not long ago and it blew up, taking out the entire launch facility.
Russia’s nukes are more or less a bluff.
So you want to play nuclear poker ? You’re a mad-man
This is an incredibly dangerous assumption. According to the Federation of American Scientists Russia has a stockpile of 4489 warheads of which some 1674 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles.[1] A large part of these warheads might be defective but realistically you only need a handful of working ones. Russia also has the necessary material and infrastructure to keep their warheads in working order.[2] So while their capabilities compared to the USSR are greatly diminished there is no reason to assume that Russias nukes are all in non-working condition.
[1] https://fas.org/publication/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2023/
[2] https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002-10/features/breakdown-breakout-us-and-russian-warhead-production-capabilitiesI’m not saying to assume they don’t all work. I’m saying to diaregard their threats of using thembecause they likely won’t.
Consider this, if only 10% of the warheads work that still leaves over 400 working bombs. Even in the unlikely situation where Russia didn’t know which ones where in working condition they could just resort to throwing 10 bombs at a target instead.
We also haven’t even defined what not-working means. You could for example classify a hydrogen bomb that doesn’t trigger it’s fusion stage as non-working. The primary stage of a thermonuclear bomb can still have a yield of a few hundred kilotons of TNT. The bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki where well below that.
For these reasons I consider the “Russian nukes don’t work” a nice fantasy at best. The threat is real and only kept in check by western nuclear counterstrike capabilities.
But it only takes one to ruin a weekend.
I don’t think at that point my weekend is ruined. It’s more like it has ceased to exist. Or matter.
They have >1000. They only need a 1% success rate.
Based on intel from my MI buddies
I really hope you’re lying about that.
I was US Army Signal Corp about 20 years ago. We worked closely with MI, and those guys gave me the info.
where are we? the war thunder forums?
Nothing spills military secrets like having to be right on the internet!
If Russia gets ambiguously belligerent with a small NATO ally (someplace like Lithuania) and everyone’s suddenly saying “we have to go to war over THAT?” and American corporate media starts framing the use of article 5 as escalatory, that’s your cue that phase 1 is complete.
Danzig or war situation.
This is specifically why France developed their nuclear arsenal under De Gaulle.
De Gaulle believed that the Americans could not be trusted to defend Europe, he was afraid that if the Russians would attack Europe with nuclear weapons the US would not defend us.
And oh how right he was.
America is already out of the question and I think most politicians in Europe are finally seeing that. But the problem runs much deeper still. With the US out of the picture, will Madrid declare war on Russia if they send little green men to a border village in Latvia?
America is doing just fine, it’s just the USA portion of it that is troubled
Looks at cartels integrating into Mexican government, giant prisons, Guantanamo Bay, everything about Argentina and Venezuela… yep doing just great. At least they got that fucker Bolsonaro out in Brasil.
Lol I live here and I gotta say, Id sign off on us being renamed to The States of America, we are the most not united thing to ever exist. We are being held together by godamn silly string and hate porn.
With the word United in it or not, that name is still ambiguous. America is a continent, the Brits conquered the North and a nation was born.
Meanwhile, incipient republics in the south were able to resist British Invasions with help of European Monarchies.
Or something like that.
“50 raccoons in a trenchcoat pretending to be a country”
I m delighted by your comment.
But also, isn’t the USA portion one of the only two countries over there that are (currently) a member of NATO?
Most politicians are seeing that now but I wonder how many of them will remember these terrifying developments as soon as another guy sits in the white house. They were way too eager to cozy up to Biden after the first 4 terrible years of Trumpism. We shouldn‘ve learned our lesson then and we should learn our lesson now. Once and for all.
Which is ironic, because the only time article 5 was invited was by the Americans, after 9/11.
Which was so funny cuz they probably went “you… want us to join u in bombing those goat herders?? They don’t even have an air force. Uhh okay…”
I really hope our politicians are not THAT dumb… Hope is what we have
Stupid or not, that’s the playbook to watch for. Don’t give Russia an inch on article 5, or they’ll use it to undermine the whole alliance.
Yes. They are that dumb. Every day there’s some fresh stupidity they come up with. Seriously, that moron is talking about invading Canada and seizing Greenland and there’s no massive outcry in D.C. to impeach or even remove him for such absurd goals?
YES. They ARE that stupid.
Instead of hanging trump for treason of jan 6, you elected him into office after he got charged with a felony AND legal system agreed president can do whatever illegal shit they want up to and beyond dictatorship. Yeah, they are that fucking dumb.
Who exactly are you talking to?
I’m German so how did I elect that orange idiot exactly?
America is going to be balls deep in greenland and europe will not go to war over THAT.
If the EU won’t consider themselves to be at war when the part of the EU defensive pact zone that is called Greenland is invaded, they’re losing all credibility both internally and externally. Why would the EU defend Finland or the Baltics or Cyprus? Why would the EU organize against foreign powers funding violent rebellions inside EU territory (similar to how Russia funded Transnistria or the US funded the contras in Nicaragua)?
There is no better red line for France to launch their nukes than the invasion of Greenland. As seen with Russia, any grace given to cult of personality dictators only emboldens them and their worshipers. The only fair response to madman theory is to call the ‘insane’ administration’s bluff and let the people who don’t want them and their families to become radioactive piles of ash take the responsibility of defying insane orders.
europe will not go to war over THAT.
Yep. Here’s a fun possible timeline:
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US takes over greenland. Europe won’t respond militarily, but will cut off most ties to 'murika, and the US government will be like “why would europe be so mean to us, we were only trying to keep them safe from Russia and China?!”.
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Europe won’t pivot too hard to China/India, but they’ll become preferred trading-partners. EU will become the bastion of actual Democracy.
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China will take that whole debacle as a green light to take Taiwan, or just re-taking manchuria (and keep taking bites out of Russia until they have reached the arctic). I honestly don’t think they’ll waste energy on Taiwan. Their military build-up and posturing towards Taiwan is probably just a ruse to lull Russia into a false sense of security.
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Russia will throw a hissyfit (threaten nukes, fail to deliver, and get fucked on the ground/air/sea). The US will try to come to their aid under the guise of stopping the “yellow threat” or whatever. That’ll eventually fizzle out as the US devolves into a civil war (that will hopefully be over quickly, but will probably make the US truly isolationist for at least 50 years). Europeans might lament the aggression of China in public, but will privately go “fuck yeah get 'em”.
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The Russian federation will collapse and splinter, and the rest of the 21st century will be a mess of global instability and the odd rogue van-borne nuke going off here and there, because swamp-troglodytes infested with a mongol khanate mindset (muscovy) should never have had nukes in the first place.
Doesn’t this scenario essentially cut off the US from advanced chip manufacturing? The chips are made in taiwan and the machines for making the chips are made in europe.
Maybe. There’s no guarantee that every European nation would be on board with sanctioning the US in this scenario.
The Netherlands (where I believe they have the only manufacturing base of the machines that make advanced chips) might decide that it’s not in their best interest to cut the US off.
Anyways I hope this Greenland shenanigans dies on the vine and my silly scenario never comes to pass.
Yes ASML is only in netherlands. Nothing else on earth produces EUV lithography machines of that scale. It’s a single monopoly
Also netherlands & Hungary definitely won’t sanction usa, they love trump
No, they don’t. But nevertheless, they make the machines and money is more worth than not selling it to exactly everyone
What does China stand to gain by attacking Russia?
What does China stand to gain by attacking Russia?
@LilaOrchideen@feddit.org already mentioned rare-earth’s, but Siberia is also extremely rich in non-rare minerals and metals. China would also stand to gain oil, gas, and coal deposits. However one probably overlooked resource is fresh water.
Water is already a massive issue in the northern half of China (not just the arid west, but even around Beijing). Eastern Russia has a lot of fresh water, like for instance Lake Baikal which contains 20% of the planet’s unfrozen freshwater. I saw some talk (5+ years ago) about China wanting to buy water-rights to this lake and pipeline it through Mongolia, but I’ve not heard of there being any concrete plans in the works yet.
Another possible gain would be easier access to the pacific and the arctic. In the extreme scenario where the Russian Federation splinters, and the eastern states of that federation find themselves without a way to make ends meet, China might make some very favorable deals in the region. Hell I wouldn’t be surprised if several of them ended up federalizing with China (or something very similar; some form of vassalage).
And with global warming comes two huge boons:
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Siberia’s tundra thawing, making it easier to access untapped resources.
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North pole remains largely ice-free for at least parts of the year, making shipping between eastern Asia and Europe cheaper and faster.
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rare earths in siberia etc
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Yeah, imagine invoking article 5 just over a handful of buildings…
Aaahaha heh hmm ahem err yes
Salami slicing all the way to London.
I like how you think.
I don’t particularly
They barely could handle a war with small Ukraine, a full scale war with NATO is a no-go; and I’m quite certain Putin won’t live that long
Presidents have access to the best medical resources, and Putin seems to be in fine shape. He could live 10 more years. I’m saying that in the hope of a pleasant surprise.
They’ll make it ✨ inconvenient✨ for people.
Sabotaging water sources (already practiced this in Finland), power stations (happened in Sweden), cutting undersea cables.
Way too many people are willing to let other people die rather than be inconvenienced.
But with Trump on his side, he might make some progress.
Trump might be an idiot, but he is not so much of an idiot to take on the entirety of Europe, who, likely when this happens will have new allies besides the US
Trump might be an idiot, but he is not so much of an idiot
I’m gonna stop you right there. Every time we underestimate Trump he shows there is no low and/or stupidity he won’t sink to. He’s credibly accused of being a Russian asset and has done everything Putin could have possibly wanted in terms of weakening western power and alliances. In like 3 months. Do I think he’ll attack the UK or something? No. But he may very well do everything possible to help Russia, including giving them weapons and hurting their enemies…
I don’t think you understand that trump is not only dumb he is also a russian asset. Sure actual evidence is shaky but when there is someone squatting with their pants down, only an completely insane person would claim they are in the process of laying chicken eggs.
A war between the US and Europe would drag in the rest of the world, nowadays that would end in planetary annihilation
If we keep it conventional, we could bring about a new dark age. It would have to go nuclear before we start wondering if the deep sea tube worms will survive. We can definitely end humanity unilaterally, we might need Russia’s help to boil the oceans.
Nuclear war would actually cool the oceans. All nuclear bombs combined contain about the same energy as Hurricane Katrina or a small supervolcano eruption. There would be a small fraction of a degree of temporary increase in global atmospheric temperatures, quickly overwhelmed by the nuclear winter as ash and dust in the upper atmosphere reduce global temperatures by several degrees for several years.
The only way I see humanity boiling the oceans is by deliberately releasing global-industrial quantities of super-effective greenhouse gases, actively designed to make the Earth as well-insulated as possible.
Trump will do anything in the safety of his home if he feels like it benefits him. If it has no negative impact for him, he doesn’t care. That’s why he could start a war with anyone, because he wouldn’t go to the front.
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There’s a chance Trump’s successor as fuhrer will be more directly militaristic, but only a chance. Most likely, Putin is still expecting Europe to fold and submit this time he escalates. Probably because he’s misread the complacency of the West over the past two decades as a weakness of personality.
likely when this happens will have new allies besides the US
Who are you thinking of? Canada’s a “shoe in” if you’ll take us, of course, but anyone else?
we may actually see a change in status-quo when it comes to china, it is also possible that europe starts warming up more to india, indonesia, brazil and other lesser powers are relations with the US deteriorates, these are the ones i would put my money on when it comes to new allies
Hmm. Would that be politically viable? If they’re coming to your rescue militarily the relationship has to be deeper than just trade.
Isn’t Europes combined military budget halfway to the moon at this point? Last I heard 180 billion and climbing not including induvidual countries efforts. Missread is a bit of an understatement.
Yeah, even he has to know that if Europe does fight back (as you and me know it would) it will go poorly for him.
I absolutely believe he’s that much of an idiot.
Would he be doing that if he attempts to take Greenland?
I’m sure Trump would do what he is doing with Ukraine now, and what America has done in the past. Provide assistance for a massive cost.
I don’t know… These last few years have led me to never underestimate stupidity. Not that I think this would happen, because I don’t think Americans would allow that.
I don’t think Americans would allow that.
What would they do to stop it?
Trump might be an idiot, but he is not so much of an idiot to take on the entirety of Europe
I don’t think he’ll have to. With Europe busy infighting and a war on the eastern border, he can snack up Greenland just as he’s planning to. Nobody will do anything about it at that point.
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Clearly, Putin underestimated Ukraine at the beginning of his invasion. But Russia can maintain the war against Ukraine for a long time to come.
Putin has no other choice: the entire Russian economy is dependent on war and armaments and would collapse if peace were concluded. Putin could no longer control his country without an external enemy.
Hence his narrative of the “Nazis” who must be fought in Ukraine (and soon on other borders (see Suwalki Gap)). This narrative of the Nazis ties in with the russian history of the Great Patriotic War, and this resonates with the Russian population. Putin is building a sequel to WWII, with renewed external threats, and the people are receptive to that.
Therefore, Putin is not at all interested in a peace treaty. And the conflict with NATO countries has already begun: the severed power cables and data cables in the Baltic Sea and the attacks on our information systems should have been regarded as acts of war from their beginning. The threat is there NOW. And Europe and NATO must build up strength.
Clearly, Putin underestimated Ukraine at the beginning of his invasion. But Russia can maintain the war against Ukraine for a long time to come.
Barring help from the US, I would be shocked if they don’t have hyperinflation within 15 months. Maybe they can keep going through that, or maybe not.
Kremlin believed that Ukraine was a country that would fall to their knees, bend over and happily join them.
Now they are taking their time and bomb civilians, infrastructure.
They are taking their time. This is not an inability. This is a deliberate breaking of Ukraine’s back.
Painting russia as unable to take over Ukraine by force is also false. They could throw enough meat to take over. Without blinking an eye.
Ask yourself. What is more beneficial? Ukraine partisants that keep sabotaging them after a violent takeover? Or disappointed and frustrated Ukraine after it slowly collapsed?
There were SS groups that consisted of volunteers from the conquered countries.
Never discredit an enemy. It serves no one but them.
Thank you for reminding me to block lemm.ee with your sad propaganda
How is this propaganda?
Because it is written with an ulterior motive to support abhorrent ideals and values
What values are that? That treating russia as a non-threat is wrong?
Interesting. Why block the whole instance? Have you seen a lot of lemm.ee users parroting propaganda? I didn’t realize that instance was so bad.
Over the months the amount of shit from that instance has convinced me they have zero value or worth, among others
I mean, ymmv, for all I know their ideals may resonate with you, but for me I am more than convinced it is a proper choice.
On reddit, 2/3rds of the time I spent there in the last few years has been blocking people to curate my engagement
Lemmy makes it so easy, I don’t have to do it one at a time now.
So my procedure is thus: after the 5 rancid comments in a day from users of any given instance, I go and browse the instance. If I keep finding unchallenged rancid replies, then fuck that instance. Lemm.ee has been on my radar for a while now
Checks out. Got to capitalise on having his asset installed in the highest office of the US before things risk stabilising.
i mean, don’t we all just assume this now?
i don’t mean to make light of the news, but it’s clear as day: america isn’t america any more.
America has always been an aggressive state - the only thing that has changed are the targets. But this is perfectly „American”.
you’re right, and phrases like “america isn’t america any more” probably aren’t really constructive, now that i stop to think about what i wrote. it actually plays to the kind of shit they’re trying to do right now with the smithsonian. so i regret writing that. thanks for pointing it out.
Eh, no worries.
Russia can’t even take over Ukraine and they’ll take on entire NATO? Even if we exclude USA from it there is just no chance. Only if dumbass Trump collaborates with Russia to attack NATO together. That would be WW3 then…
They’re already quite successful in hybrid warfare against NATO and EU.
Probing NATO’s security guarantees doesn’t mean taking it on fully. It means testing out how far you can go without them fully committing with military.
There’s this old saying that goes something like: “The European Airforce could beat Russia any day of the week - as long as they don’t have to do it the next week as well.”
Meaning, the most pressing problem are our ammunition stockpiles. If you research that you’ll quickly see how bad the situation is in the EU currently. The Bundeswehr could, according to top generals, not stay in a fight for more than one or two weeks before running out of artillery shells, missiles and bombs.
Then there’s also the issue of lacking infrastructure, the absence of a unified command structure in Europe and with the withdrawal of the US, also a lack of strategic capabilities (awacs, satellite data, military intelligence, air tankers, heavy lift helicopters, …).
The Bundeswehr could, according to top generals, not stay in a fight for more than one or two weeks before running out of artillery shells, missiles and bombs.
You should read these claims with the same amount of nuance you use on claims like “Russia runs out of tanks/missiles/shells”.
What they mean is “we can sustain a full-on, large scale offensive at optimal supply for two weeks, before we need to scale to a lower operational pace and stockpile material for our individual operations.”
No military ever has enough, Russia “ran out” a few days into their offense, and yet they’ve been fighting for years.
the absence of a unified command structure in Europe
Eh, NATO high command exists just fine. Sure, it would be headed by the 2nd in command, but it works.
also a lack of strategic capabilities (awacs, satellite data, military intelligence, air tankers, heavy lift helicopters, …).
Yeah, Europe has a terrifying lack of enablers, but the reason for that is, apart from intelligence, is that European militaries aren’t prepared for, or want to be prepared for, large scale offensive power projection away from home.
You can drive a truck from Gibraltar to Talin in Estonia in 48 hours. A train takes slightly longer, though I imagine clearing the railways is a lot easier under martial law.
Europe only has one good wing of tanker/transport planes, but we have hundreds and hundreds of airfields, and you don’t need much mid-air refueling in a defensive war where everyone has capital cities in easy jet range.
The lack of airborne radar and satellites is MUCH worse for Europe than any other enablers.
Using NATO infrastructure would presumably invite US to the table, which is probably not desirable, even today.
You should read these claims with the same amount of nuance you use on claims like “Russia runs out of tanks/missiles/shells”.
What they mean is “we can sustain a full-on, large scale offensive at optimal supply for two weeks, before we need to scale to a lower operational pace and stockpile material for our individual operations.”
No military ever has enough, Russia “ran out” a few days into their offense, and yet they’ve been fighting for years.
Idk man, we (as in NATO nations, except the US) ran out of ammunition during the air campaign against Libya. And that lasted mere days without any significant enemy pushback. There simply are no significant (deep) depots of ammunitions stockpiled here. Sure, we could probably start throwing helmets at the Russians after a week or so.
Eh, NATO high command exists just fine. Sure, it would be headed by the 2nd in command, but it works.
Most of the NATO command structure is incredibly US centric though, it doesn’t end with the SACEUR. It’s kind of unsettling considering our current relation with the US.
Regarding your last paragraph, I agree that airborne radar and satellite data are the most crucial factors we are lacking without the US.
Russia has the same problem as the same problem has the US, but supercharged it. They made the military the backbone of the economy and main social safety net, so they need to be in a permanent state of conflict to justify it.
That’s not at all comparable to the American economy, wtf dude.
To different scales it is. The US has been using the armed forces as an employer of last resort, and defense factories are the only thing keeping some regions afloat. Of course the US economy is significantly more developed outside of the military, but if the US were to scale back its military there would be transversal cracks all over the economy and society.
What is the size of the army in men/woman for Russia? Given the last 3 years, their demographic should be impacted overall, isn’t it?
People who follow this subject have been talking about it as a crisis before the invasion even began. Now it’s being described as “demographic collapse”. They have remarkably low birth rates, an ageing population, xenophobia issues, and few friendly nations from which to borrow workers. I saw one headline that they’ve begun trying to bribe young ladies to have children. I believe I’ve seen Putin on record saying he sees demographics as one of his biggest issues, but his policies belie a more cynical stance. It is likely that Russia will continue to decline throughout the century, and in geopolitical terms they are positioned to eventually become a client state of some sort, likelier than not beholden to China.
Maybe they’ll find a way to rebound. Banning contraception, banning abortions getting rid of women rights plus no other way to survive in old age apart from having many children. Seems like the US is going that way.
I feel that would lead to women escaping the country, suicides or to kill the babies if they are born a girl…
It is definitely impacted but you also need to consider how indoctrinated and thoroughly militarized the younger generations are at this point. Russia might not have good birth rates, but their children are forced to learn marching in formation early on (I think it was at kindergarten level) and practice with wooden rifle mockups.
https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/europa-krieg-szenarien-bnd-bundeswehr-li.3227229
translation
Germany’s supreme soldier is convinced that Russia is preparing for a great war. Even after a possible ceasefire in Ukraine, Germany has no time “to take a deep breath”, says the Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, Carsten Breuer. Russia continues to upgrade and has doubled the number of soldiers compared to pre-war times. The Russian military structure is clearly against the West. Therefore, an end to the war on Ukraine will not lead to “we have peace again on the European continent,” he said in the talk show “Maischberger” recently.
This coincides with the assessment of Jörg Schmitt, the deputy head of the investigative department of the Süddeutsche Zeitung. Together with colleagues from WDR and NDR, he was able to evaluate the situation analyses of the BND and the Bundeswehr. By the end of the decade, Russia could create the conditions for a large-scale conventional war against NATO, regardless of the war in Ukraine.
According to these sources, Moscow could try to test the Nato with various scenarios, says Schmitt. For example, by provocations in the Baltic region or in the Arctic. Vladimir Putin is concerned with exploring the US’s responsiveness and assistanceUSA.
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To me this sound like propaganda to justify military spending. Stockpiling weapons benefits authoritarian governments and rich people.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
The numbers speak for themself.
Some military spending is good since you might actually have to, you know, defend your country.
Germany alone is already spending 66 billions a year in “defense”. If they were spending 120 billions and the government would said “we need more” you would drink it arguing that some military spending is good.
We are already all armed to the teeth and waging wars against each others. The same governments increasing the “defense” budget to defend us from evil russia are backing israel in a genocide, no government here has really good intentions.
Germany has been seriously underspending for decades. It’s gonna take a lot of money to get them to any sort of level where they’d have a credible defence.
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You should measure expenses in bullets, shells and bombs. Not in who managed to pay the most money for them.
Quite far down the list. Of the 40 countries, per GDP they’re what, 32nd? And that’s after decades of chronic underspending, where their capability has crumbled.
war propaganda
War propaganda is when you have a credible defence. Right-o.
Having an higher GDP doesn’t mean you have to spend more
Well sure, but it’s a good start for a comparison. Best would be to add in the existing capability, the level of threat, size of the country, that sort of stuff.
It’s just that even Germans have now realized that their chronic underspending has really hurt them and now to have any sort of respectable defence they’ll need to spend more. A more moderate amount for a longer time would’ve been better but it is what it is.
